New Delhi

As the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran entered its 13th day, former Foreign Secretary Kanwal Sibal said on Thursday that Washington is unlikely to risk deploying its navy to forcibly reopen the strategic Strait of Hormuz because of Iran’s territorial advantage.

Speaking to ANI, Sibal said the deep-water channel in the Strait of Hormuz — essential for large commercial vessels — lies within Iranian territorial waters, making any naval operation extremely risky for the US.

“The United States will never take the risk of sending in its navy to open up the Strait of Hormuz because it will lose its naval vessels, as the deep-water channel in the strait lies in Iranian territorial waters,” he said.

Sibal noted that Iran would not require sophisticated long-range weapons to threaten naval operations in the narrow waterway. Short-range missiles, torpedoes and sea mines could pose serious risks to high-value naval assets, he said.

He warned that the situation has already triggered a major “energy shock”, particularly after disruptions in liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies from Qatar.

India depends heavily on Qatar for LNG imports, which account for nearly 40 per cent of the country’s supply, he noted.

“The LNG business is a problem because we are highly dependent on Qatar for LNG, and they have stopped producing LNG,” Sibal said.

According to him, the crisis is affecting India’s energy security on two fronts — LNG availability and rising crude oil prices.

Global oil prices have surged to around USD 114 per barrel from earlier levels of around USD 70, he said, warning that sustained price increases would significantly raise India’s import bill.

“With each one-dollar increase in oil prices, if sustained over a year, it adds almost two billion dollars to our oil bill. So this has to be settled very quickly,” he said.

Sibal added that the situation has been further complicated by insurance companies refusing to cover ships entering the conflict zone, effectively creating a “de facto blockade” even without a full military closure of the strait.

“Now the problem is not simply whether Iran closes the Strait of Hormuz or not. Insurance companies do not want to insure ships going into the area,” he said.

Meanwhile, a Liberia-flagged oil tanker, Shenlong Suezmax, carrying crude oil from Saudi Arabia has reached Mumbai Port, becoming the first India-bound vessel to pass through the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict began.

The tanker had loaded crude at Ras Tanura Port in Saudi Arabia on March 1 and departed on March 3, according to maritime tracking data.

The vessel reportedly passed through the Strait of Hormuz on March 8 before temporarily disappearing from tracking systems after switching off its Automatic Identification System (AIS) transponder — a mandatory maritime radio system that broadcasts a ship’s identity, position, speed and course.

The tanker reappeared on tracking systems on March 9 and docked at Mumbai Port at around 1 pm on Wednesday. It was later berthed at Jawahar Dweep at 6:06 pm.

The vessel is carrying approximately 1,35,335 metric tonnes of crude oil, which will be supplied to refineries in the Mahul area of eastern Mumbai. The unloading process is expected to take about 36 hours.

The conflict in West Asia escalated following the killing of Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei in joint military strikes by the United States and Israel on February 28.

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In retaliation, Tehran launched attacks on American military bases in several Arab countries and targeted Israeli-linked assets across the region. Israel, backed by the United States, has continued its strikes on Iranian targets and has also widened military operations into Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah and other Iran-backed groups.