R Rajagopalan

The BJP has decimated Congress in six southern states: Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Puducherry, Kerala and Telangana.  It is akin to BJP 2014 poll slogan Congress mukt Bharat.  Certainly, Narendra Modi achieved it in six southern states. But such a cadre-based BJP is yet to identify its failures in Puducherry and in Tamil Nadu. BJP is now blind somewhat similar to the adage that five blind men were to feel an elephant.  

BJP is yet to estimate Dravidian politics.

Puducherry

BJP has 12 MLAs in Puducherry and yet the party has no ministerial berth even one month of the election results for Assembly.  DMK has managed to keep stop BJP away from ministerial positions.  DMK is playing dirty tricks and it looks like the re-enactment of Maharashtra in Puducherry.  Of course, for doing a Maharashtra style politics in Puducherry, there is no Sharad Pawar or Uddhav Thackrey.  That is why the DMK has also failed. DMK is yet to understand the wily politics of Amit Shah and JP Nadda.

It has been more than a month since the popular Government came into power. It’s only the chief minister who has taken the oath; he has no council of ministers. In Tamil Nadu, the MK Stalin government has handled the Covid-19 crisis effectively. Kerala government assumed office in the third week of May. All three states went for assembly polls in April.

Puducherry assembly has 30 seats and the NDA has an absolute majority. However, DMK is playing politics to prevent BJP from assuming power. DMK is using all the dirty tricks up its sleeves. Reason DMK has 6 MLAs with N Rangaswamy Congress having 10 easily they can prove the majority.  If BJP does well, Tamil Nadu politics will undergo a major change.

Presently BJP has got 4 MLAs in Tamil Nadu. Already the slogan for the BJP Tamil Nadu unit is. we will increase "4 to 40' in the 2026 Assembly polls.  DMK is scared of BJP emerging as a principal opposition.  Congress is reduced to a district party in Tamil Nadu. Though they had won 18 seats the party is at the mercy of MK Stalin. 

Tamil Nadu

Modi and BJP bashing helped DMK to regain its lost political strength in Tamil Nadu.  Solid minority votes were cast for the DMK front. Rahul Gandhi did not make a dent. But Congress at the mercy of DMK won 18 seats.  

It has been almost 30 days since MK Stalin assumed the post of Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu. The mandate of Tamil Nadu is so balanced that there is strong opposition in the form of ADMK. Tamil Nadu voters did not give a road roller majority to DMK. Certainly, a check and balance are there. DMK definitely handled Covid well. But there are a few discriminations. One particular belt comprising Coimbatore, Salem, Madurai districts were totally ignored. As ADMK won thumbs down DMK ruling party did not make much from there.  A proverb in Tamil for the newlyweds is: Love is for thirty days; affections for sixty days.

In other words DMK is still in its honeymoon period with the voters.  MK Stalin's major contribution in one month is to transfer IAS and IPS officers on a massive scale. Say in total 300 All India service officers were shunted out. Especially the officers from UP, Bihar, and Odhisa were given bad treatment. Maybe these officers were loyal to the earlier ADMK regime.  It is usual in politics.

However, in Tamil Nadu the Dravida pride is looming large. The government issues lots of press releases. Chief Minister MK Stalin wrote 26 letters to Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Oxygen, vaccines and for more release of funds. In a lighter vein, a senior serving Officer commented that they only change the date and name of the Chief Minister(in writing letters). But the letters from MK Stalin were identical to that of his predecessor Edapati Palaniswamy.  Contents were the same with little modifications. 

Stalin- BJP Tie-up

It is a catch 22 situation for DMK. How would it adjust with the Centre?  MK Stalin heckled ADMK Edapadi Palaniswamy as "bonded Government" to Modi. Interestingly MK Stalin is now doing the same.  For another two and half years how would MK Stalin move his political coin against BJP or Narendra Modi?  WIll MK Stalin be like Mamata Banerjee, a mercurial ally? Or Will MK Stalin behave like Naveen Patnaik? DMK has no third option. Sky-high poll promises were made by MK Stalin. Everything is free, be it washing machine, cooker, gas cylinder etc.  P Chidambaram Congress leader commented in a jovial way- if DMK promises were to be met it would cost 20 lakh crore to the treasury. which is equal to a Union Government Budget figure.

Voters still have confidence that MK Stalin will deliver the promises made during the poll campaign and also what DMK stated in its poll manifesto.  DMK assured one crore to Corona victims.  But that has not been fulfilled by DMK. The Opposition has been questioning the government about it in the debates on local TV channels and in press statements. DMK assured cancellation of NEET examination, Stalin claimed that he will sign the first file after assuming office. But in one month nothing has come.  DMK has internal family control and domination.  There are four or five factions within the family. Reason M Karunanidhi had three wives. And their children are fighting each other. MK Alagiri who was Union Minister in UPA is estranged. He does not talk to his brother Stalin.  

BJP Strategy

Modi has helped Tamil Nadu. The oxygen supply was quick. Modi got the Sterilite Oxygen plant opened through Supreme Court intervention. It is Narendra Modi who for the first time visited Jaffna in Sri Lanka, to ensure the safety and security of Tamil minorities. It is Narendra Modi who took Chinese President Xi Ping to Mahabalipuram for the Indo-China Summit.

But at personal level Narendra Modi had not yet forgotten the "Go Back Modi" black flags shown to him by DMK  M K Stalin. Modi got wounded. Because out of human courtesy and respect Modi visited the 94-year-old Karunanidhi, the father of MK Stalin. This will loom large in the minds of the BJP cadre as well as its leaders. Modi will certainly show his spots to MK Stalin at an appropriate time. With this negative approach of DMK and MK Stalin, the state of Tamil Nadu should not suffer.  

(R Rajagopalan is a veteran journalist with 40 years experience of reporting South India)