Tripti Nath/New Delhi

China’s loud threats to punish Taiwan for hosting the U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, have made world leaders and strategic experts sit up and take note of Beijing ‘s next move.

While some experts see the situation in Taiwan and the Taiwan Strait as “very tense” and a signal that India should be highly vigilant, others say that this is typical “sabre-rattling” by China.

Jayadeva Ranade, President of the Delhi based think-tank Centre for China Analysis and Strategy says that the Chinese have given such shrill warning that they have to do something and yet the question is whether they can take on the United States.  “Taiwan is tiny compared to China. China always goes for the smaller, weaker and softer target. It boils down to what the United States will do after having sparked this tension. U.S. should do something. It cannot let Taiwan sink.’’

Ranade, formerly member of the National Security Advisory Board, said, “ I don’t see any military action before the weeklong Congress of the Chinese Communist Party expected in late October. “President Xi Jinping is seeking an endorsement of his leadership for a third term. For him, it is a big deal. He cannot afford to lose face. China will make Taiwan feel the pain but they will not take on the U.S. but, it is a very tense situation. Xi Jinping has hyped up nationalism and xenophobia so much that if one of the younger pilots or naval officers get carried away and try and take action that pushes the envelope but they did not mean to start a war, that may lead to a shooting conflict.”

Mr Ranade who is author of “ Ji Xinping: China’s Third New Era’ published this summer, said that the actions being taken by China are a serious development. “The question is what China can do. It has announced certain restrictions on airspace making it difficult for Taiwan to get goods or move its people. China has also banned the import of some food items but it will hurt the Taiwanese companies. We will have to wait and see. While the Chinese continue to beef up their military strength, the question again is how far they will go.’’

He said that this is a serious development for India either way. “Even if the Chinese get away with it, they will be emboldened and then not only India but all other countries in the region need to be wary about what the Chinese will do. If Xi Jinping is made to eat humble pie, he will still be looking for retrieving his image.''

Mr Ranade who has served in the Indian mission in Beijing, says, “ The moment it was leaked that Nancy Pelosi was going to Taiwan, the Chinese raised the bar immediately. In the region, the way people are looking at is that if the U.S. had not gone ahead with the visit or she would not have gone ahead with the visit, it would have looked like U.S. backing down. So, if the Chinese talk of loss of face, it would have been viewed as loss of face on both sides. Personally, I don’t think they can take on the U.S. which is far stronger. China always looks at the smaller target- the weaker country which they have done in this case.  It boils down to U.S. being the number one superpower. It does not want the Chinese to get ahead. I don’t see that happening. I think, the Chinese will try to defuse the situation.”

It is worth noting that the U.S. House Speaker, second in the line to Presidency and the highest profile- elected U.S official to visit Taiwan in 25 years, has not buckled under pressure from China. On Wednesday, Nancy Pellosi tweeted, “Make no mistake: America remains unwavering in our commitment to the people of Taiwan– now & for decades to come.’’

Col Anil Bhat, strategic expert and author of recently published book, ‘China Bloodies Bulletless Borders’, is of the view that Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan is an act of provoking China which is literally fuming and carrying out live fire drills in the Taiwan Straits, carrying long range weapons within 20 kilometre of Taiwan and violating Taiwan’s air space. This is classic Chinese sabre- rattling which it specializes in with optics of massive Chinese forces in military parades and exercises.’’

Col Bhat who has been Spokesperson of India’s Defence Ministry as well as the Indian Army, said that the fighting capabilities of Chinese PLA forces as seen as recently in Ladakh in 2020 are not up to the mark, to put it mildly. “ If China’s firing continues and hits closer to or at any Taiwanese defence assets, China may get a response which it may have to regret. Let China not forget that U.S. warships are already in the water near Taiwan.’’

Dr Udai Bhanu Singh, formerly Senior Research Associate at the Delhi based Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis says that the Nancy Pellosi visit to Taiwan is taking place at a very critical time.  “While her visit also includes two ASEAN countries- Malaysia and Singapore and two East Asian states- Japan and South Korea, the noticeable impact will be on ASEAN. ASEAN (which is holding a series of high profile meetings in Phnom Penh, Cambodia this week ) will be forced to take a position on Taiwan when the East Asia Summit meets for instance, and U.S. Secretary of State Blinken, China's Wang Yi and India's External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar.

A strategic analyst and an expert on the Indo Pacific, Dr Singh said, “ASEAN is generally not comfortable on taking sides in Great Power competition , but the Joint Communique that ASEAN will issue at the end of the meeting would be worth watching out for. The ASEAN-India foreign ministers' meeting will be discussing the progress of ASEAN-India relations separately. India's role within the Quad, and Indonesia seeking the BrahMos missiles (after Philippines) are the additional points which need to be factored in the developing scenario- to say nothing of Russia's role in the East Asia summit.’’