New Delhi

India could experience 30 fewer extremely hot days each year, while the world on average could avoid 57 such days if countries meet their emission-cutting pledges under the 2015 Paris Agreement and limit global warming to 2.6 degrees Celsius this century, according to a new study published on Thursday.

The analysis by Climate Central and World Weather Attribution said the global accord, which completes 10 years this year, is steering the world toward a safer climate but warned that the current pace of action is not enough.

Even at 2.6 degrees Celsius, scientists caution, future generations will face dangerous heat, severe health risks and growing inequality unless countries move faster to phase out fossil fuels.

The study found that at 4 degrees Celsius of warming, the level scientists projected before the Paris Agreement, the world would face an average of 114 hot days per year.

If countries meet their current pledges and limit warming to 2.6 degrees Celsius, that number could drop by 57 days annually.

India could experience 30 fewer hot days a year, while Kenya could see 82 fewer, Mexico 77, Brazil 69, Egypt 36 and the US and the UK 30 and 29 respectively, the researchers said.

Prof Friederike Otto, Professor in Climate Science at Imperial College London, said, "The Paris Agreement is a powerful, legally binding framework that can help us avoid the most severe impacts of climate change. However, countries need to do more to shift away from oil, gas and coal. We have all the knowledge and technology needed to transition away from fossil fuels but stronger, fairer policies are needed to move faster."

"Political leaders need to take the reason for the Paris Agreement much more seriously. It is about protecting our human rights. Every fraction of a degree of warming whether it is 1.4, 1.5 or 1.7 degrees Celsius will mean the difference between safety and suffering for millions of people," she added.

The Paris Agreement, adopted by nearly 200 countries in 2015, aims to keep global temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius and pursue efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees Celsius. Warming has already crossed 1.3 degrees Celsius and global emissions continue to rise.

According to the World Meteorological Department, the global average concentration of carbon dioxide surged by 3.5 parts per million from 2023 to 2024, the largest increase since modern measurements started in 1957.

The study also looked at six recent heat events across southern Europe, West Africa, the Amazon, Asia, Australia and North and Central America.

At 4 degrees Celsius of warming, such events would be 5 to 75 times more likely than today, while at 2.6 degrees Celsius, they would be 3 to 35 times more likely.

Kristina Dahl, Vice President for Science at Climate Central, said, "The Paris Agreement is helping many regions of the world avoid some of the worst possible outcomes of climate change. But make no mistake, we are still heading for a dangerously hot future. The impacts of recent heatwaves show that many countries are not well prepared to deal with 1.3 degrees Celsius of warming, let alone the 2.6 degrees Celsius of warming projected if countries meet their current pledges."

The study highlighted that since 2015, just 0.3 degree Celsius of additional warming has led to 11 more hot days per year globally and made heatwaves two times more likely in India and Pakistan, nine times in Mali and Burkina Faso and ten times in the Amazon.

It said that adaptation measures have improved, with about half of all countries now having early warning systems and at least 47 having heat action plans. But researchers warn that many nations in Africa, Latin America and parts of Asia still lack such systems.

Joyce Kimutai of Imperial College London said developed nations that have caused most of the warming "need to take the lead and move much faster".

She added that "cutting emissions alone won't be enough" and called for tripling adaptation efforts to protect lives and livelihoods.

"The Paris Agreement works. It shows that when countries come together, they can accelerate emission cuts for a safer future," said Bernadette Woods Placky, Chief Meteorologist at Climate Central.

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Researchers stressed that the most effective way to protect people from extreme heat is to rapidly move away from coal, oil and gas, the main drivers of climate change.