New Delhi

India has witnessed a 7.81 percent decline in the majority religious population (Hindus) in the past 65 years.  In comparison, the population of Muslims saw an increase of 43.15 percent in the same period. The rise in the Muslim and other minorities' population gives a lie to the theory of "Minorities persecution" and shows India as a "thriving democracy with open embracing of diversity."

This is as per a study “Share of Religious Minorities A Cross-Country Analysis (1950-2015) “ sponsored by the Economic Advisory Council to the Prime Minister (EAC) and done by Shamika, Ravi Abraham Jose, and Apurv Kumar Mishra.

The Indian scene is in stark contrast with South Asia where the share of the majority religious denomination has increased and minority populations have shrunk alarmingly across countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Afghanistan.

As per this working paper, the Hindu population of India was 84.68 percent in 1950 and it has come down to 78.06 percent by 2015. As against this Muslim population was 9.84 percent and had increased by 14.09 percent in 2015, registering an increase of 43.15 percent.

The share of the Christian population rose from 2.24 percent to 2.36 percent - an increase of 5.38 percent while Sikhs from 1.24 percent to 1.85 percent (6.58 percent rise.

Even the share of the Buddhist population witnessed a noticeable increase from 0.05 percent in 1950 to 0.81 percent. Jains are the only denomination whose population has fallen.

Political changes are mere symptoms of deeper structural changes happening in societies, of which demographic change is an important component. Dr @ShamikaRavi, Abraham Jose & Apurv Mishra write in this latest EAC-PM Working Paper. 1/8 https://t.co/Er8nNO97dw pic.twitter.com/WjByrOJUwD

— EAC-PM (@EACtoPM) May 7, 2024

On the other hand, the share of Jains in the population of India decreased from 0.45 percent in 1950 to 0.36 percent in 2015. The share of the Parsi population in India witnessed a stark 85 percent decline, reducing from 0.03 percent share in 1950 to 0.004 percent in 2015.

In the South Asian context, the study says, “On the Indian subcontinent, all the Muslim-majority countries witnessed an increase in the share of the majority religious denomination except Maldives where the share of the majority group (Shafi’i Sunnis) declined by 1.47 percent. In Bangladesh, there was an 18 percent increase in the share of the majority religious group which is the largest such increase in the Indian subcontinent.”

The study says, “Contrary to the noise in several quarters, a careful analysis of the data shows that minorities are not just protected but indeed thriving in India. This is particularly remarkable given the wider context within the South Asian neighborhood where the share of the majority religious denomination has increased and minority populations have shrunk alarmingly across countries like Bangladesh, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, and Afghanistan.”

“India has been a nourishing environment for the Tibetian Buddhists who had to escape from China and have found a comfortable home in India in the last six decades. Similarly, Matuas who took refuge in India due to religious persecution in Bangladesh have been assimilated into Indian society. India also hosts a significant population of refugees from Sri Lanka, Pakistan, Myanmar, and Afghanistan. Given its plural, liberal, and democratic nature, India has continued its civilizational tradition of harbouring persecuted populations from several countries over the last six decades.”

As per the study, “India’s performance suggests that there is a conducive environment to foster diversity in the society. It is not possible to promote better life outcomes for the disadvantaged sections of society without providing a nurturing environment and societal support through a bottom-up approach. 

“By way of illustration, India is one of the few countries that has a legal definition of minorities and provides constitutionally protected rights for them. The outcomes of these progressive policies and inclusive institutions are reflected in the growing number of minority populations within India.

Pakistan witnessed an increase of 3.75 percent in the share of the majority religious denomination (Hanafi Muslim) and a 10 percent increase in the share of the total Muslim population despite the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. 

Among non-Muslim majority countries, Myanmar, India, and Nepal saw a decline in the share of the majority religious denomination. Myanmar witnessed the steepest decline of the majority religious group.

The study finds that more than half of the 40 countries that experienced the biggest changes are in Africa. Animism, as defined in the RCS-Dem Dataset, was the majority religious denomination in 24 countries in 1950. By 2015, it was no longer the majority in any of these countries. 

Of the 94 countries that reported being Christian majority in 1950, 77 saw a decrease in the share of the majority religious denomination. 

In the same period, 25 out of the 38 countries that reported being Muslim majority, saw an increase in the share of the majority religious denomination. 33 out of 35 OECD countries included in our analysis have witnessed a decline in the share of the majority religious denomination, of which 30 have seen a significant decline.

In Bangladesh, there was an 18 percent increase in the share of the majority religious group which is the largest such increase in the Indian subcontinent. Pakistan witnessed an increase of 3.75 percent in the share of the majority religious denomination (Hanafi Muslim) and a 10 percent increase in the share of the total Muslim population despite the creation of Bangladesh in 1971. 

Myanmar witnessed the steepest decline of the majority religious group in the region with the share of Theravada Buddhist population declining by 10 percent in 5 SAARC plus Myanmar.

Of the three major religions in Nepal, the share of the majority Hindu population declined by 4 percent, the share of the Buddhist population declined by 3 percent while the Muslim population increased by 2 percent. 

Only Sri Lanka and Bhutan among non-Muslim majority countries have witnessed an increase in the share of the majority religious denomination between 1950 and 2015. In Sri Lanka, the share of the majority Theravada Buddhist population increased by 5 percent while the share of the Hindu population (the next largest religious group) declined by 5 percent. 

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In Bhutan, the majority Tibetan Buddhist population increased by almost 18 percent while the Hindu population declined from 23 percent to 11 percent in the same period. In democracies, the change in political outcomes triggered by demographic changes is particularly acute on two accounts. Firstly, they redraw the contours of elections because demographic changes affect the provisioning of public goods.