New Delhi

Former deputy National Security Adviser Pankaj Saran on Wednesday described the ongoing conflict in West Asia as the “most serious crisis” India has faced in living memory, warning that it could have far-reaching consequences for the country’s energy security, workforce abroad and geopolitical choices.

Speaking to PTI Videos on the sidelines of a strategic conclave in New Delhi, Saran said the crisis could have a deeper impact on India than even the Russia–Ukraine War because of the region’s proximity and its significance for India’s economy and diaspora.

“I think it is the most serious crisis we have faced in living memory. In many ways it is more serious for us than the Ukraine conflict because it is at our doorstep,” Saran said.

He explained that the conflict directly affects several key aspects of India’s national interests, including energy supplies, remittances from Indian workers in the Gulf and the country’s strategic choices in the region.

The tensions escalated after joint strikes by the United States and Israel targeted Iran on February 28, triggering retaliatory attacks by Tehran on American-linked assets across Gulf countries and disrupting shipping routes, aviation and global oil markets.

According to Saran, the ferocity of the attacks on Iran and the broader objectives of the military campaign signal a conflict with potentially profound regional consequences.

“The objective appears to be to change Iran as a society, as a polity, as an economy and as a military power. These are not inconsequential,” he said.

A former diplomat and strategic affairs expert, Saran noted that West Asia has experienced repeated cycles of instability over the past quarter century, citing conflicts in Afghanistan, Iraq, Syria, Libya, Yemen and Sudan, as well as the continuing crisis in Gaza.

He said the region represents a complex intersection of energy politics, terrorism, geopolitical rivalries and great power competition.

“The intersection of energy, radicalisation, terrorism, Israel’s dominance in the region and American supremacy has created a very lethal cocktail,” he said.

Saran also argued that the conflict highlights the asymmetry of power in global politics, noting that even major powers such as Russia, China and European nations have largely remained silent.

“In this situation, the world’s most powerful military has chosen to bomb Iran. So there is only that much others can do,” he said.

When asked about India’s role as a “net security provider” in the Indian Ocean Region, Saran urged a realistic assessment of capabilities.

“You cannot thump your chest about being a security provider when even major powers are watching silently. Sometimes you simply have to wait for the storm to pass and then get back to business,” he said.

Saran was speaking at a three-day conclave hosted by Bengaluru-based think tank Synergia Foundation at the Manekshaw Centre in New Delhi from March 11 to 13.

During the event, he also warned that the global rules-based order has effectively collapsed, leaving countries to operate in an increasingly unpredictable international environment.

“We live in a world in which there are no rules. The biggest disruptors of the rules-based order today are the global superpowers themselves,” he said.

For countries in the Indian Ocean region, he cautioned that strategic options are limited and national sovereignty is increasingly constrained by global power politics.

Saran urged India to draw lessons from the crisis and strengthen domestic resilience to shield itself from global shocks.

“The lessons are clear — we have to become stronger domestically and build resilience so that we can insulate ourselves from global disruptions,” he said.

He added that India is entering a new phase in its national strategy and must prepare for a transformed global order.

Recalling India’s decision to continue importing oil from Russia despite Western sanctions after the Ukraine war, Saran said New Delhi may again face difficult strategic choices depending on how the West Asia crisis evolves.

He also argued that the Western-led international order that shaped global politics for decades has begun to unravel.

“The world order crafted and shaped by the United States has today been undermined by the Americans themselves,” he said.

Saran suggested that such shifts in global politics also formed the background for the electoral victory of Donald Trump in the United States, reflecting a broader reassessment of international commitments.

Asked whether energy has historically been used as a geopolitical tool, Saran said there was little doubt about it.

READ MORE: Zahida Khan: The first woman legislator from Mewat is an inspirational figure

“Of course, historically energy has been weaponised, and there is no dispute about that,” he said.