Sushma Ramachandran

Amid deepening geopolitical tensions, India and Russia are seeking to expand their strategic and economic ties. External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar’s recent visit to Moscow saw Russian President Vladimir Putin emphasise the need to boost bilateral trade and address practical difficulties, including fertiliser supplies to Indian farmers.

The warmth in ties comes as the United States has passed legislation enabling tariffs of up to 100 per cent on countries that support the Russian economy by purchasing its oil and gas. Though discretionary and dependent on the U.S. President, the threat underscores the growing risk of trade being used as a geopolitical weapon even as India and the U.S. continue negotiations on a bilateral trade agreement.

New Delhi, however, appears determined to maintain an independent foreign policy driven by national interests. This is evident from preparations for forthcoming meetings between Putin and Prime Minister Narendra Modi on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Bishkek and the BRICS summit in New Delhi in September.

India’s longstanding relationship with Russia is likely to come under renewed scrutiny. Successive U.S. administrations have acknowledged, albeit reluctantly, the depth of these ties. India’s continued purchase of Russian oil also needs to be viewed pragmatically, particularly amid disruptions to supplies from traditional sources in West Asia.

Russian crude imports, which had fallen to around 20 per cent of India’s total oil imports by January, rose again from March and accounted for about 50 per cent in July. Supplies from countries such as Iraq and Kuwait have declined amid attacks on oil and gas infrastructure and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz. Attacks by Yemen-based Houthis on merchant shipping through the Bab el-Mandeb have further complicated maritime trade. Russian vessels, meanwhile, have continued to use the route, making Russian crude a relatively dependable source for Indian refiners.

The current warmth in bilateral ties builds on a relationship that dates back to the Soviet era. Moscow’s support for India, including during the 1971 war with Pakistan, remains an important part of this strategic partnership. India’s decision to abstain from several UN resolutions relating to the Ukraine conflict has been criticised in Western circles, but New Delhi has consistently maintained that its foreign policy is guided by its national interests.

Economic ties, however, have become increasingly imbalanced because of the surge in Russian oil imports. The bilateral trade deficit rose from $6.6 billion in 2020-21 to more than $50 billion in 2025-26. Total trade has meanwhile quadrupled to nearly $60 billion, with Indian imports at $55.3 billion against exports of only $4.5 billion.

An ambitious target of $100 billion in bilateral trade by 2030 has been set, but achieving it will require substantially greater Indian exports. During the Moscow meetings, Jaishankar stressed the need to improve market access, remove tariff and non-tariff barriers, streamline payment mechanisms and strengthen business-to-business engagement.

Russia is also seeking wider cooperation in sectors including energy, nuclear power, metallurgy, space, railways, fertilisers, skills mobility and connectivity.

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The proposal to send Indian workers to Russia to address its labour shortage could open new opportunities in construction, manufacturing, services, IT and healthcare. However, it will require stringent safeguards in view of previous cases in which Indians were allegedly lured to Russia on false promises of employment and subsequently forced into military operations.