Shankar Kumar

Afghanistan and Pakistan have signed a ceasefire agreement in Doha after recent clashes. Given the yawning trust gap between Afghanistan’s Taliban regime and Pakistan, it will not be surprising if the two sides start clashing again.  There are multiple reasons for it.

First, Afghans do not consider the Durand Line, which once served as a buffer between British and Russian powers in 1893, as a border.  For Afghans, the Durand Line and areas beyond are Afghanistan’s territory. This was reflected in the revised official statement of Qatar’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, which has exchanged the word ‘border’ with the Durand Line in response to Kabul’s objections.

Second, Afghanistan rejects Pakistan’s accusation that the Taliban regime is providing a haven to the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The third: Afghan Taliban feel they had to bow out of their country in 2001 because of Pakistan, which offered its soil to the US and NATO to target and kill Taliban and their leaders in the name of fighting terrorism.

Fourth, the Taliban warming up towards India and its foreign minister Amir Khan Muttaqi’s recent visit to New Delhi were seen as proof of growing engagement between New Delhi and Kabul by Islamabad. Given the inherent tension in their relations since 1947, believing that they would be good neighbours is like asking for stargazing in broad daylight.

Deepening fault lines

For Pakistan watchers, however, the worrisome aspect is Islamabad’s inability to read the tea leaves. Islamabad conveniently blamed the Afghan Taliban for sheltering the TTP militants and the consequent violence and instability within its own borders. In doing so, it ignores the uncomfortable truth of deepening fault lines, from Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa to Balochistan and Pakistan-occupied Jammu and Kashmir.  

In the restive Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, hardly a day passes without violence and killings. This year (Till September) as per Pakistan Army’s Peshawar corps commander, as many as 1,425 people, including 303 soldiers and 73 policemen were killed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa.

Dominated by the Pashtuns, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has run out of patience with the Pakistani state and its Army. Sharing ethnic and cultural relations with the Afghan Taliban, people in Pakhtunkhwa have very often vented their anger for decades of discrimination and abuse of their rights.

There are videos on social media that present the concerns of local people in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa; they claim that the Pakistan Army attacks and kills people in the province in the name of fighting terrorism. On September 22, 2025, 30 people, including women and children were killed by the Pakistani Air Force after it launched airstrikes on the Matre Dera village in Tirah Valley.

This is not the lone attack on common civilians by the Pakistani armed forces. Between January and September 2025, as per the Islamabad-based Centre for Research and Security Studies (CRSS), Khyber Pakhtunkhwa has suffered nearly 71% of total violence linked fatalities and over 67% of incidents of violence.

Balochistan, situated in Pakistan’s south-west, is the second restive province of the country. On October 21, over a dozen Pakistani army personnel were killed during a fierce clash with the coalition of Baloch armed groups in the Zehri tehsil.

Zehri tehsil in Khuzdar district of Balochistan, under military seize for several weeks, has seen an unaccounted number of fatalities in the recent past. A few days ago, several people, including women and children were killed in the Pakistani military-led drone strikes in the area.

According to a CRSS study, between January and September 2025, this south-west province of Pakistan saw a 25% rise in killings and violence in comparison to the same period last year. Analysts have warned that in coming years fatalities and violence will grow in Balochistan as rampant abuses of Baloch’s rights are going on uninterrupted.

A mineral resource rich province, Balochistan has more than eighty mineral resources with significant deposits, said the Geological Survey of Pakistan. Yet, Balochistan faces poverty, starvation, and huge unemployment issues. According to the 2025 Global Report on Food Crisis, released by the Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO) on May 16, 11 million people in Pakistan, mainly living in Balochistan, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are facing acute food crises.

Despite all this, Pakistan has not stopped relentless exploitation of Balochistan. Systematic abuse of Baloch people’s rights, and continued extrajudicial killings have moreover turned the province into a hotbed of insurgency. In June, the Baloch National Movement’s Human Rights Department’s revealed that as many as 33 cases of extrajudicial killings and 84 cases of forced disappearances were reported across Balochistan.

Sindh is yet another Pakistan province which is bursting at the seams. On October 7, at least seven people were injured in a blast that derailed the Jaffar Express train in Sindh province. The incident showed growing restiveness in the province which has faced the worst form of oppression at the hands of the Pakistani state and Army.

Those who raise voice against the Pakistani state are abducted in broad daylight, brutally tortured, and killed.  In fact, after Balochistan, Sindh is another province which wants independence from Pakistan. Sindhis have been historically struggling for identity; they accuse the Pakistani state of erasing their culture through systematic oppression like imposition of Urdu language on them. They also accuse Islamabad of economic exploitation.

But it is Pakistan occupied Kashmir which is giving headaches to Islamabad. A few weeks ago, Pakistan occupied Kashmir’s Muzaffarabad, Kotli and Mirpur were epicentres of protests against Islamabad’s arbitrary taxation on electricity generated from Mangla Dam which is situated on the Jhelum River.

Thousands of people from all walks of life had joined the protest, accusing Islamabad of treating PoK as a vassal state rather than a federating unit of the country.  To quell the protest, Pakistan Army had opened fire, resulting in the killing of 10 people and injury of several others. Although temporary peace returned to the region following Islamabad’s acceptance of all demands of protestors, since sustainable peace requires political inclusion, transparent delivery of economic relief and credible institutional reforms, it will be keenly watched as to how soon Pakistan acts on these issues.

Conflict with neighbours

For Pakistan, the real problem lies in its adjustment; steeped in the false pride of being a nuclear state, the country is a haven for terrorists, who have run a ground Islamabad’s relations with nearly all its neighbours lying in the north, northeast, east, and west.

Iran and Pakistan share about 900-km border, launched airstrikes against each other in January 2024. Tehran said it launched airstrikes on the hideouts of terrorist group Jaish al-Adl in Pakistan, which in turn, called the strike “an egregious violation of international law.” It also launched a counter attack on Iran, leading to the killing of several people and injury of dozen others.

In the last ten years, Pakistan and Iran have on multiple occasions faced escalation of tension between them on account of cross-border terrorism.

In June 2017, PAF shot down an Iranian drone in Punjgur, Balochistan. On October 16, 2018, 12 Iranian security personnel, including intelligence officers from the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) were abducted on border with Pakistan by the Pakistan-based terrorist group Jaish al-Adl.

Pakistan, once again, feigned concern and ignorance. But Tehran exposed Islamabad’s deceit. After the December 6, 2018 assault that killed four Iranian police personnel and injured 42 others, Iran’s then Foreign Minister Javad Zarif blamed “foreign-backed terrorists,” for the ghastly incident--widely interpreted as an accusation against Pakistan.

Towards India, Pakistan’s attitude is openly that of an enemy. A few days back, Pakistan’s Army Chief, General Asim Munir, issued a threat of a “decisive response” to India amid heightened border tensions with Afghanistan. Earlier in May, India launched a military operation codenamed “Operation Sindoor” after 26 civilians were killed in Pahalgam, Jammu and Kashmir, on April 22 by Pakistan-based terrorists.

The operation was halted following Islamabad’s request for a ceasefire, after Indian forces inflicted a devastating blow to Pakistan’s military infrastructure, while eliminating nine terror camps in the process. Before halting military operations, India had made it clear to Pakistan that any act of terrorism against it would be treated as an act of war.

Instead of making efforts to normalise relations, Pakistan provokes India with nuclear attack. To the disappointment of common Pakistani people, Islamabad, under pressure from the Pakistan Army, recently hiked the country’s defence budget by 20%, ignoring the fact that it is surviving on the IMF's bailout package.

In fact, the long-standing enmity with India has brought multifaceted costs on Pakistan. Years of prioritizing military spending have come at the expense of infrastructure, education, and healthcare, contributing to a fragile economy and persistent instability in the country. Yet, Pakistan is among the few countries that do not want to learn from its past mistakes.

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Pakistan teeters on several fault lines—internal and regional. Moreover, its overreliance on military solutions has left its economy fragile, and its society deeply fractured. Relations with neighbours such as Afghanistan, India, and Iran remain fraught with mistrust and hostility.