J K Tripathi

The Doha deal engineered by Donald Trump in February 2020 has borne its fruit prematurely. The temerity with which the Taliban fighters captured almost the entire country has taken the world by surprise. Even more surprising was the lack of resistance by the Afghan forces. It exposed not only the quality of training imparted by the NATO forces to them but also the corruption in the government and security forces.

Though they captured Kabul rather quickly, the Taliban are yet to establish their government for which the negotiations are still going on. People are scared of the Taliban due to their previous record of atrocities and human rights violations in their earlier rule. On the ground, local leaders continue to indulge in violence and issue diktats despite repeated assurances to the contrary and grant of general amnesty by the top Taliban leaders. Afghans are fleeing their country; countries are evacuating their nationals and local sympathizers and that makes the Kabul airport looks chaotic with firings and stampedes commonplace. On the ground, the situation is confusing; claims and counter-claims on developments on social media are creating perceptions. It’s intriguing that despite having complete control of the country, except in Panjshir and Kabul Airport, the Taliban are not able to form their government. This climb down from their dictating position due to the need for a de jure recognition and the financial crisis the country is facing has certainly eroded the Taliban’s power. It’s struggling to find a balance between its brand of dogmatism and the compulsion of presenting a milder face to the rest of the world.

Before we go into the options for India in the scenario, It’s apt to know how the developments in Afghanistan have affected different countries. The USA, to begin with, had announced its plan to leave Afghanistan in November 2010; and its execution was hastened by Biden. Not the withdrawal but the way it was done without a smooth transition plan is being questioned. Nevertheless, the US now seems to be fully out of the Afghan quagmire. The USA and its allies have agreed to take Afghan refugees in varying numbers. Russia’s worries about the spillover effect of the Taliban’s victory in the former USSR territories and now CIS countries have seen many closing their borders. Thus, its initial enthusiasm of Russian to have brokered a peace has petered down to ‘wait and watch.’

The repeated overtures from China have not fetched any tangible progress in its relations with successive Afghan governments. However, of late, China has been in touch with the Taliban and it’s said that the Taliban have been convinced into ignoring the plight of Uyghurs in return for Chinese investments in their war-torn country. China is eyeing the vast mineral resources worth more than US$ one trillion in Afghanistan. Reopening the ancient silk route on which Kabul was an important hub, China has proposed linking Kabul with Peshawar under its BRI program. However, besides expressing its willingness to work with the Taliban, China has not issued any firm statement and like others is merely watching the developments in Afghanistan. Iran too, after its lip service to the Taliban due to their common animosity towards the US, has kept quiet. Pakistan is in a bigger dilemma. The domestic criticism of Imran Khan’s euphoria over the breaking of “shackles of slavery” had hardly died when the recent release of the jailed leaders of TTP (Tehreek-e-Taliban-e- Pakistan, banned in Pakistan) and Uyghur Muslims by Taliban has posed serious discomfiture to the country.

For India, the issue of immediate concern and priority is the evacuation of Indians and that is being efficiently handled. The second issue which is also being raised in media relates to the safety of our investments in Afghanistan. Let it be clear here that most of our investments have been in the form of developmental projects -dams, hospitals, roads, power sector projects, parliament etc. which no sane government, democratic or otherwise, would ever like to destroy. Also, this has been assured more than once by the Taliban spokesman Suhail Shahin. The third aspect of the effect on India concerns security- especially the threat in J & K. 

True, that there was an increase in terrorist attacks during the last regime of the Taliban. This worry pre-supposes a stable Taliban Government, free from domestic disturbances and economic crisis, to sponsor terrorists to India. However, we need not worry unnecessarily about this count for two reasons. One, in the current situation, it will take at least six months for any government in Afghanistan to attain acceptability and peace. Second, the internal security situation in J&K is not the same as it was at the end of the last century. It is considerably beefed up which will make any terrorist operation much more difficult there. Nevertheless, we should not lower our guards in J&K.

What are the options for India? India has three options in Afghanistan: watch and wait and do nothing till a stable government emerges there. Second, not recognise the new government in case it’s not inclusive and does not denounce terrorism and recognise human rights. The third option is to recognise the new government irrespective of its belief and principles. 

The first option is fraught with the possibility of waking up too late while other nations have moved faster to fill in the vacuum created by the departure of the US. Though the second option conforms to our principles of democracy, anti-terrorism etc., it is non-pragmatic from the diplomatic point of view. To try to make the world better through high-sounding principles is the job of a statesman, a visionary. Diplomacy works in the world as it is. Aren’t we having diplomatic relations with the terrorist state of Pakistan, or the notorious human rights violator China or dictatorial Myanmar, Russia, Iran and the Middle East? In diplomacy, at least one door must always be kept open for negotiations and manoeuvring. The third option of recognising the new Afghan government is probably the best option. We should not find ourselves left behind when others recognise the new government and consolidate their position in Afghanistan. We will be in a better position if we recognise it as we have a better track record of friendship, based on history and people to people contacts. 

The best course will be to combine options one and three that is to engage all Afghan stakeholders including the Taliban while watching the situation so that once the new government is formed we are not late in registering our formal and friendly presence there. More than once Taliban leadership has assured that India’s investments will not be disturbed. They have also stated that they do not wish to be a party in the Kashmir issue. Taking a cue from these statements, our government should, and perhaps is doing that, work to convince them of our bona fides.  

(JK Tripathi is s former Ambassador)