Will just-ended farmers' protests impact elections?

Story by  ATV | Posted by  Aasha Khosa • 2 Years ago
Rakesh Tikait celebrating farmers' victory
Rakesh Tikait celebrating farmers' victory

 

Shekhar Iyer

When Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced the withdrawal of three contentious farm reform laws on the morning of November 26, which also marked the birthday of revered Guru Nanak, he was not just putting his image and reputation at stake. Modi was giving up important legislation that he still thought was crafted in the best interest of boosting agriculture and farmers—but he was willing to give it up for the sake of the national interest for ending more than a year-long farmers' agitation at Delhi's borders.
 
For many people, Modi's move was in the context of the next round of assembly elections in key states like Uttar Pradesh and Punjab in early 2022, which should have weighed so heavily on his mind. They argued that Modi had to do so because the BJP seemed politically beleaguered by protests and was no longer in a mood to risk its impact on the outcome.
 
That may seem to be true. But three weeks after Modi's announcement and days after Parliament officially annulled the laws, the question is are the coming elections all about the farm laws or handling of several development issues including the distress in the agriculture sector by the incumbent BJP governments.
 
With the laws repealed, the BJP feels it is more sure of bridging the gap with the farmer communities and looks to get endorsement for developmental work steered by the Modi government and undertaken by governments headed by Yogi Adityanath and other BJP chief ministers. 
 
On the other hand, the opposition parties appear as if they had not expected Modi to capitulate. Therefore, they seem totally at sea and probably feel the wind has been sucked out of their sails.
 
Did Modi choose to walk away from a trap that they thought would ensnare him politically forever? These parties are now forced to go back to their drawing board for evolving a new strategy for a new kind of momentum against the BJP, at least in Uttar Pradesh where the farmer agitation had seen violence in Lakhimpur Kheri. By a single stroke, Modi has removed the main issue agitating the farmers. 

He gave a written promise by the government to the kissan groups - to examine all their demands including a proposed law for minimum support price (MSP) to cover all crops, which they believe is a permanent cure for their distress. Also, his government has pledged to withdraw all cases against the agitators in the BJP-ruled UP and Haryana, and examine the proposed electricity bill that would have made them pay more for use.
 
Thus the curtain has been brought down on one of the most prolonged street sit-ins by farmer groups, mostly belonging to Punjab, Haryana, and western UP.
 
However, no agitation can be sustained, let alone be expected to have a bigger impact if the perceived issue of grievance is obliterated or reduced in magnitude to a great extent. Of course, the farm laws are not the only agrarian issue in the region. But, BJP units in the states where the farmers’ agitation was prominent are showing signs of relief.
 
In Western UP, which is the home ground of Bharatiya Kisan Union (BKU) leaders Rakesh Tikait and Naresh Tikait, the Jat farmers were seen behind the BKU leadership. In 2017, the Jats had overwhelmingly voted for the BJP. So much so, of the 71 assembly seats across 14 districts in western UP, the BJP had won 51 in 2017. The Samajwadi Party (SP) had won 16 seats, the Congress two while the BSP and RLD had won one each. Later, the lone Rashtriya Lok Dal (RLD) MLA Sahender Singh Ramala joined the BJP.
 
After the farmers' agitation left the BJP on the defensive, Jayant Chaudhary-led RLD allied with SP leader Akhilesh Yadav. Both the leaders are now hoping for a new alliance of Jats and Muslims to damage the BJP's electoral prospects.The BJP, however, feels that there is no consolidated vote bank of farmers on community lines. Local factors including the caste of candidates play a big part in the outcome. In UP, the Yogi government’s performance is on the test. The BJP feels that Yogi will get thumbs up because of a "visible improvement" in law and order, power situation, water supply, and other infrastructure facilities. 

Farmers will be back with us, say BJP leaders, pointing to the renewed pitch in Modi's rallies in support of the farming community. The PM has been listing out all that his government has done for farmers. Apart from claiming credit for the rollback of farm laws, kisan leaders would not risk jeopardising their future talks with the Centre, which are to take place in due course for resolving their demands. So, these kisan groups are also constrained in going full blast against the PM.
 
Also, Modi and Yogi are repeatedly referring to the era under the SP rule when Akhilesh Yadav was CM between 2012 and 2017, asking the voters whether they would prefer a return to the kind of quality of governance under him. In Punjab, which was the epicenter of the agitation by farmers, the scenario is far more confusing for the contesting parties. Former CM Amarinder Singh has parted ways with his parent party to form his Punjab Lok Congress, which is set to align with breakaway Akali Dal led by Sukhdev Singh Dhindsa and the BJP. With the farmers' agitation off the roads, Amarinder is confident that he can thwart the chances of the Congress under his bete noire Navjot Singh Sidhu to form government again.
 
Akali Dal leader Sukhbir Badal has aligned with the Bahujan Samaj Party, with a promise to make a Dalit deputy chief minister if the alliance wins power. 
Therefore, the much-fancied Aam Aadmi Party (AAP)'s chances look more challenging than before-- though it is still confident to form the next government. However, the most likely picture that may emerge in Punjab after the elections is one of a hung house where new permutations and combinations cannot be ruled out.
 
As the campaign picks up heat, one will hear about the "achievements" of the farmers' agitation in western UP and Punjab but the BJP is bound to take refuge in Modi's words that “the farm laws were brought in the interest of the farmers and they are being withdrawn in the national interest.”
 
On its part, the BJP may not talk about these laws as they stand repealed. The reality that is haunting the agriculture sector in the poll-bound cannot be brushed under the carpet. These issues are bound to figure in the poll talk. Both the government and farmers want the rural income to double in a short period. Farmers believe that maintenance of the Minimum Support Price (MSP) is the way forward. They will get assured high prices, increase production and obtain high incomes.
 
As many economists believe, the introduction of a legally guaranteed MSP can lead to excess production, which could become a burden on the economy as a whole. Farmers will continue to increase production of those crops where MSP is guaranteed even when we already have excess stocks. They are lured by the high MSP. The increased production does not lead to lower prices because the MSP is fixed. The result is that this excess production has to be exported or sold at a very low price. On the other hand, if the market-determined the demand and supply ideally, farmers may grow such crops whose demand they can foresee.

No one can deny that the sector does need reforms, more accessible mandis, and assured income for farmers to face the vagaries of nature. One of the solutions could be in motivating farmers to shift from low-value MSP-supported crops like wheat and paddy, to high-value crops. The other method could be to make more direct cash transfers to farmers. The government could transfer Rs 1,00,000 per family per year and assure them of a basic minimum income if they are willing to forego fertilizer, electricity, water, food grain, and export subsidies. Farmers would believe their minimum incomes are assured by cash transfers. These solutions may or may not be on the election plank of major political parties. But the plight of farmers will demand their attention in the course of electioneering.
 
In states like Uttarakhand, Goa, or Manipur, which also go to polls next February-March, the BJP does not appear weakened though anti-incumbency issues pose a big challenge for a return to power.
 
 At the same time, the opposition does not seem to be united in these states to upset the BJP in a big way. Mamata Banerjee's Trinamool Congress is out to vanquish the Congress before it can hope to trounce the BJP in Goa. The BJP is still counting on Modi to prove the much-needed thrust to boost the campaign in these states. Already, Modi has been crisscrossing UP and other states, giving an early advantage to the BJP by inaugurating projects that were undertaken since the party came to power.  
 
 Everywhere, Modi makes it a point to put before the voters the choices before them: continue the present arrangement for better governance or invite slip backward by voting for the opposition.