J K Tripathi

 

Pakistan is once again caught in a whirlpool of political instability and Imran Khan is at its center. After nearly six months of efforts, opposition parties have succeeded in bringing a no-confidence motion against Prime Minister Imran Khan Niazi in the National Assembly, although discussions on it will begin on March 31, and voting is expected on April 4. Until then, Imran Khan is trying his best to save his government.

 

 While on the one hand, the government has taken the matter to the Supreme Court, on the other hand, it wants to postpone the voting for as long as possible by putting pressure on the Speaker of the National Assembly and meanwhile managing to gain support. In this, Imran Khan will not shy away from sacrificing many leaders of his party, as he did in Punjab by removing his party’s chief minister on the demand of coalition partner PML (Q), and making its leader Chaudhry Parvez Elahi the chief minister. In lieu, he managed to gain the crucial support of five members of the PML(Q) in the National Assembly. Imran has already announced in a rally that he has many trump aces up his sleeves. Earlier, on the very first day of the session of Parliament, the Speaker had adjourned the house to the advantage of the ruling PTI. It helped PTI delay the opposition’s tabling the no-confidence motion against Imran Khan. However,  it does not seem that Imran has more strokes left against the opposition’s onslaught.

 

Coming to the numbers, in the 342-member National Assembly, the ruling party requires 172 votes for a simple majority. At present, Imran Khan's PTI has 155 members.  The allies of the government are Muttahida Qaumi Movement (P) -7 members, Balochistan Awami Party-5 members, PML (Q) -5 members, Grand Democratic League-3 members, Awami Muslim League-1 member, Jamhuri Watan Party. -1 member and independents- 2 members. Thus the total number of supporters of the government becomes 179 which is only 7 more than the general majority.

 

On the other front, Pakistan Muslim League (Nawaz) has 84 members, Pakistan Peoples’ Party is 56, Muttahida Majlis-e-Ammal 15, Balochistan National Party (Mengal Group) 4, Awami National Party 1, and Independent 2 members. This totals to 162? By giving the post of Chief Minister of Punjab to PML (Q) from among his allies, Imran hopes to gain the support of five more members, but Balochistan Awami Party (5) has made it clear that it’s with the opposition. The only member of the party Jamhoori Wattan has also announced to leave the government, although he is being approached to reverse his decision.

 

At the same time, he praises Indian foreign policy and then blames external forces (indirectly India) for the current crisis. Imran Khan has become a batsman who is being harassed not only by the entire opposition team but also by his team members. To save his government, Imran has asked the Supreme Court to interpret Article 63A (1) of the Constitution. Although the Attorney General is arguing loudly in the court in favor of the government, looking at the provisions of this section, it seems from common sense that the government side has no case. This section states that if a member of a parliamentary party votes against the instructions of his party, he will be deprived of membership in the House. For this the party leadership will first give him a show-cause notice then in case of no reply he will inform the Speaker in writing two days later, the Speaker will write to the Election Commissioner and then he will be deprived of membership. This whole process will start only after the outcome of the voting.

 

Scrutiny will only begin after a rebel member’s vote has helped bring down the government. In these circumstances, it seems that the PTI government will not be able to survive if it does not take extremely extreme steps like the arrest of MPs or a declaration of emergency. This is unlikely because the Pakistani military is now disillusioned with Imran Khan and has renewed its friendship with Nawaz Sharif's party.

 

What happenes in the eventuality of the fall of Imran Khan’s government? There are three possible options - the first is to form a new government President could invite the second-largest party, namely Shahbaz Sharif-led PML (Nawaz), and it can be done with the help of other parties. The second option is for Imran to dissolve the National Assembly and hold mid-term elections, and the third is for the army to seize power and rule by martial law. The first option is completely constitutional but the problem is that the opposition parties come with different ideologies and vested interests. Imran is using the second option as a threat because he knows that most of the MPs would not want to go to the polls again so soon. The third option would be in favour of the army but the people who have tasted democracy may not accept the rule of the army so soon. The possibility is that the army will allow the opposition to form the government and after watching it for some time, will seize power later.

 

What effect will these developments have on India? A stable government in our neighborhood keeps us free from many worries. If there is an unstable government in Pakistan, the threat of cross-border terrorism will increase. Whatever it is, it remains to be seen how this formidable batsman can bat in the last overs of his political innings.

(The author is a former diplomat)