New Delhi

India is facing a crucial policy dilemma as the United States intensifies pressure on nations importing Russian oil, with prolonged uncertainty likely to result in higher trade costs, according to a report by the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI).

The report comes after US President Donald Trump, on January 4, warned that Washington could impose steeper tariffs on Indian goods if New Delhi continues to purchase Russian crude. This warning follows existing trade restrictions, with Indian exports to the US already subject to a 50 per cent import duty, half of which, the report noted, is directly tied to India’s Russian oil imports.

Pressure is also mounting on Capitol Hill, where US Senator Lindsey Graham is advocating legislation to levy secondary tariffs on countries importing Russian oil and gas should Moscow fail to agree to a ceasefire in Ukraine within a 50-day window.

GTRI pointed out that after the US imposed sanctions in October on major Russian energy firms, including Rosneft and Lukoil, leading Indian refiners such as Reliance Industries and several public sector companies announced a suspension of Russian oil purchases to avoid secondary sanctions. However, imports have not ceased entirely, with reduced volumes continuing from suppliers not under sanctions, leaving India in what the report termed a “strategic grey zone.”

According to the think tank, this lack of clarity is weakening India’s negotiating position. It said that if India intends to discontinue Russian oil imports, the decision should be firm and transparent. Conversely, if purchases from non-sanctioned entities are to continue, New Delhi must clearly articulate its stance and back it with data. The report warned that ambiguity is no longer a sustainable option.

GTRI also cautioned that halting Russian oil imports may not automatically ease US pressure, as trade negotiations could shift focus to other sensitive areas such as agriculture, dairy, digital trade and data governance.

The report further noted that current tariff-related pressure is linked to a particular political phase in Washington, which may not be permanent. While countries like the European Union, Japan and South Korea reduced Russian oil imports to manage relations with the US, China — the largest buyer of Russian crude — has faced comparatively limited pressure due to its strategic leverage.

Indian exports to the US have already fallen by 20.7 per cent between May and November 2025, and any further escalation in tariffs could worsen the slowdown, the report warned.

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“As tariff threats intensify, India must take a clear and decisive position on Russian oil, stand by that choice, and communicate it unequivocally to Washington,” GTRI said.