New Delhi

The ongoing political and economic turmoil in Venezuela is unlikely to trigger any major impact on global prices of gold, silver, or crude oil, as the country has remained under international sanctions for years and contributes minimally to formal global supply chains, experts said while assessing the latest developments involving the United States and Venezuela.

Banking and market expert Ajay Bagga said Venezuela’s importance in the global economy has diminished significantly over the past decade due to prolonged sanctions. Speaking to ANI, Bagga noted that the country’s gross domestic product has sharply declined.

“In fact, Venezuela’s GDP has fallen from around USD 350 billion in 2012 to nearly USD 80 billion in 2025 due to sanctions. In a global economy worth about USD 116 trillion, this is not a material figure,” he said.

Bagga added that despite possessing some of the world’s largest crude oil reserves, Venezuela’s oil infrastructure has deteriorated substantially. “Only Chevron is operating a few oil fields along with the state-owned oil company. Even a complete loss of Venezuela’s current production of around 9.5 lakh barrels per day would not be significant when global oil supply stands at roughly 103 million barrels per day,” he explained.

On precious metals, Bagga said recent movements in gold and silver prices are largely driven by broader safe-haven demand rather than developments specific to Venezuela. He pointed out that similar trends are visible in the strengthening of the US dollar.

“Gold and silver are reacting more to safe-haven buying, much like the US dollar, which has gained today. Venezuela itself is not a major factor behind the current rise in precious metals; last year’s broader macroeconomic issues continue to influence prices,” he said.

Energy policy expert Narendra Taneja also downplayed concerns about any immediate disruption to global oil markets due to the Venezuela crisis. He said that most refineries worldwide are not configured to process Venezuelan crude, which is primarily heavy oil.

“I don’t see any immediate impact on oil prices. While Venezuela may have large reserves, it remains a very small supplier to the global system, producing only around 9 lakh barrels per day. Most of this oil is exported to China,” Taneja said.

He further noted that increased involvement of American companies could potentially boost Venezuela’s oil output in the future. “There is a possibility that Venezuela could raise production to about 3 million barrels per day within the next year. If that happens, more oil would enter the global supply system, which would actually be positive for the market,” he added.

Overall, experts agree that the Venezuela situation is unlikely to cause significant volatility in oil or precious metals markets in the near term.

Over the weekend of January 3–4, 2026, the United States carried out a major military operation in Caracas, during which Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, were captured. The operation followed months of escalating tensions between Washington and Caracas.

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US President Donald Trump, addressing a press conference from Palm Beach, Florida, said no country had achieved what the United States had accomplished. He added that the US would administer Venezuela “until such time as we can do a safe, proper, and judicious transition,” according to ANI