Aditi Bhaduri 

On 15 September, Doha convened an extraordinary summit of Arab and Islamic countries.  The meeting was called to formulate a response to Israel's strikes on a Doha suburb almost a week ago, targeting the Hamas negotiating team in Doha. Negotiations were on about a US-proposed ceasefire in Gaza. Six people died in the strikes, including a Hamas leader's son. However, the leaders, who were the main targets, survived the strike.

What is surprising about the strikes is that Qatar is a long-time and close US ally, housing the largest US military base. It also enjoyed unofficial ties with Israel. The US claimed it had no prior knowledge of the strikes. There is still not much clarity over this. Moreover, Qatar has the American-made Patriot Missile Defence system, which did not function to thwart the strikes.

This brings us to another larger question -- are the Doha strikes a message to Turkey?

It is undeniable that Israel and Turkey have been facing off for a while now. Once one of the few allies of Israel in the Muslim world, Turkey’s relations with Tel Aviv have nosedived over Israel's Gaza military operations since October 2023, over Turkey's support for Hamas, and, more recently, over Syria.

Israel, which had intermittently bombed Syria during President Assad's time, in a proxy war it had fought with Iran, continued attacks even as President Mohammed Al Sharaa took over in Damascus. For the Jewish state, both Iran and the Sunni Islamists now in charge in Syria constitute an identical threat. Israel sees Turkey's expanding presence in Syria as an existential threat. 

Turkey, along with Qatar, is in the driver's seat in Syria.  Both have supported the Tahrir Hayat Al-Sham and other rebel groups there. While Qatar bankrolled them, Turkiye helped them with military training, arms, logistics, transit, ideology, etc. Ankara is positioning itself to play a major role in the new Syria, filling a vacuum left by Iran. 

54 Islamic countries get together to discuss the Israeli attack on Qatar

Israel had pushed into Southern Syria using ground troops and had expanded its presence around the Golan Heights. It called it an expansion of a "buffer zone", saying the presence was required to protect the Druze minority there. In March, Israel had also struck three air bases in Syria. These were the T4 and Palmyra air bases in Syria’s Homs province and the main airport in Hama province, where it is widely believed Turkey was hoping to station its troops. Israel had also been lobbying with the US to prevent the sale of F-35s to Ankara and also allow Russian bases to remain in Syria. 

Why does Turkey constitute a threat to Isrrael?

Both Turkey and Qatar have supported and aided Hamas. While the October 7 (2023) Hamas attacks on Israel have forced Qatar to roll back its support to the group, Turkey has continued its support of the organisation. It is also the most vocal critic of Israel's retaliatory actions in Gaza. It has allowed Hamas to set up a base on its territory.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently announced that he does not view Hamas as a terrorist group but as legitimate freedom fighters.

And now Turkey also has the upper hand in Syria. US President Donald Trump's promise to remove sanctions from Syria renews the Syrian threat for Israel. To that end, Israel wants a buffer zone inside Syria by occupying parts of Southern Syria where the Druze minority is concentrated.  Syria saw two major massacres of minority communities since Al Sharaa took over, with the Druze being the second community - they too have rallied around an extended Israeli presence there. An agreement is now being hammered out between Israel and Syria through mediation by Egypt, Jordan, and the UAE.

However, Hamas remains an existential threat to Israel, and it has been aided and supported by both Turkey and Qatar, while other Arab governments washed their hands of the organization.

Ambassador of Qatar to the Un attending the Security Council session on Israeli attack on his country

Almost two years since 7 October 2023, Israel's military intervention in Gaza has wreaked widespread destruction and devastation.  More than 60,000 people, mostly civilians, have been killed. The charges of genocide have been filed before the International Criminal Court against Israel, and a warrant has been issued against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Most of the Hamas top brass have been eliminated.  Israel even fought a short war with Iran. Yet, all this has not yielded it a decisive victory. Forty-eight Israelis remain captive in Gaza. Israel began a ground invasion of Gaza City, urging residents to flee the strip. Netanyahu has also announced the expansion of Israeli settlements in the West Bank.

Against this backdrop, the Hamas delegation was negotiating a US-backed ceasefire with the Israelis in Doha, with Qatar’s mediation, when Israel conducted the strikes from over the Red Sea through Saudi airspace.

Israel, after conducting negotiations for two years with Hamas in Doha, has now declared Hamas leaders as legitimate targets. This, Netanyahu said, made Qatar a legitimate target, likening its strikes on Doha to the US strikes in Pakistan, which eliminated Osama bin Laden. It likened the October 7 attacks to America's 9/11 terror. 

This logic, then, would make Turkey and equally legitimate targets for Israel. Moreover, unlike Qatar, Turkey has played no part in mediation but consistently condemned Israel. It has now broken all diplomatic and trade relations with Israel. 

Moreover, the US has not condemned the Doha attacks outright, while saying they were not "helpful". It also allowed a rare UN Security Council statement that condemned the attacks without naming Israel. In short, it has taken no punitive action against Israel, but offered platitudes to Qatar, which recently played host to Trump, lavishing him with expensive gifts. 

With Turkey, the US has a more complex relationship. Turkey is a NATO member, but it also pursues close ties with Russia. The US imposed sanctions on it for stationing the Russian S400 Triumf missile defence system on its territory. The US has withheld the sale of F-35 fighter jets to it. Yet, Turkey has also been active in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, provided a venue for talks between US and Russian delegations, and helped broker a grains export deal between Russia and Ukraine. It is, thus, doubtful as to what support Turkey may expect from the US in case of any Israeli attacks on it.

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At the same time, Turkey is not Qatar. It is a large country with the second-largest military in NATO. It has its own cutting-edge arms industry and a battle-hardened military. Therefore, for Israel, striking Turkey may raise the stakes. That is why, perhaps, with a wink and nod from the US, and who knows which other powers, regional or extra-regional, Israel struck Qatar to drive home a point for Turkey. 

The author is an independent journalist who writes on the Middle-East and Central Asia affairs