New Delhi

India could attract USD 80 to USD 85 billion under the Reserve Bank's concessional swap facility scheme to encourage foreign currency inflows, a report said on Monday.

Till July 17, of the total inflows under the scheme, Foreign Currency Non-Resident (Bank) or FCNR (B) deposits accounted for USD 17.406 billion, Overseas Foreign Currency Borrowings (OFCBs) contributed USD 1.97 billion and External Commercial Borrowings (ECBs) amounted to USD 1.342 billion.

'Ecowrap', an SBI research report, said the RBI figure of about USD 20 billion inflows till July 17 came as a "positive reprieve", chiefly with a smart FCNR(B) corpus of USD 17.4 billion.

"Overall, we believe FCNR (B) deposits in the range of USD 65-70 billion should be received overall in scheme, and including OFCB and ECB at USD 80-USD 85 billion," it said.

It further said that RBI data indicates FCNR(B) deposits worth USD 17.4 billion have been mobilised (till July 17) and the trend suggests that pubic sector banks are major drivers of this mobilisation.

The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) introduced the swap facility on June 5, 2026, as part of a host of measures to strengthen India's balance of payments and incentivise capital inflows.

The facility was operationalised on June 8, 2026, and is available up to September 30, 2026 for the FCNR (B) deposits, and up to December 31, 2026 for the OFCBs and ECBs.

The measures were announced as part of the RBI's efforts to strengthen India's external sector position and support foreign exchange liquidity amid global market uncertainties.

The SBI research report further said that while the Indian rupee initially responded positively to the announcements of RBI measures, the euphoria fizzled out soon as the hopes of an amicable solution between the US and Iran diminished, energy prices remained volatile, and FPIs turned cautious (against good inflows in debt markets and some stability in equity flows during June).

The report expects that due to RBI measures, the capital account would have an additional USD 75 to USD 85 billion in fiscal 2026-27, and inward remittances would cross USD 150 billion.

Additionally, strong FDI inflows of USD 15 to USD 18 billion in fiscal 2026-27 and better FII inflows in the second half of the fiscal are expected, it said.

"Thus, the overall balance of payment would be in surplus of more than USD 50 billion for FY27. This is way above our previous estimate of USD 65-70 billion deficit," the SBI report said.

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Subsequently, the current account deficit would be in the range of 1-1.2 per cent of GDP for 2026-27.