J K Tripathi

President Vladimir Putin paid a flying visit to New Delhi for a summit with Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The summit was in continuation of the annual summits between the leaders of the two nations which is alternatively in New Delhi and Moscow. For the last two years, the face-to-face summit could not take place due to the Covid pandemic. Though it was a very short visit, it was very important in wake of the changing geopolitical situation in Asia. In his opening remarks, Putin called India “a great power, friendly nation and a time-tested partner”, something akin to the "all-weather friendship” between China and Pakistan.

In the Joint Press Statement issued after the Summit, both leaders highlighted the “Special and Strategic Partnership of both countries despite the Covid pandemic”. It is to be noted that way back in 2000, Russia had declared India its “Strategic Partner”. The two leaders discussed the strengthening of cooperation in several issues including defense, trade, energy, outer space, science & technology, and regional and global political situation. The statement which very aptly named the meeting“Partnership for Peace, Progress and Prosperity” revealed that Putin shared common perspectives and concerns on Afghanistan and appreciated the roadmap chalked out during the NSA’s meeting in Delhi. Though some skeptics see a deterioration in bilateral relations quoting the very short duration of the visit, the very fact that, during the current testing time of the pandemic, Putin has not attended and face-to-face meeting except the one with Joe Biden a few months back, should clarify their misgivings.

The short duration of the visit was also due to the grave situation between Ukraine and Poland and the tension in the Black Sea which requires Putin’s presence in Moscow. Moreover, Putin and Modi had another virtual meeting later and this made up for the former's rather short visit. Besides, the record number of 28 bilateral agreements/MOUs shows how strong this bilateral relationship is.

Putin has made it clear that the supply of the S-400 Anti- Missile system will continue despite USA’s discomfiture and a veiled threat to India on the matter. The USA has already invoked CAATSA (Countering American Adversaries Through Sanctions Act) against Turkey for acquiring the S-400 system. Though there is no provision of any exception in this act and only Congress can make amendments in the Act for waivers, its invocation has been temporarily deferred by the previous US administration in case of India’s import of crude oil from Iran two years ago. We can safely expect the US not to take any action in this regard as it needs India as much as India needs the USA, if not more, for countering China in Asia. Any sanction on India would certainly alienate Delhi from Washington and both are well aware of this geopolitical compulsion.

Perhaps taking advantage of this situation, India and Russia have charted out a 10 year- program for technical cooperation in the defense field beside the ongoing supply of the S-400 and the decision to manufacture the latest AK 203 assault rifles in India which we desperately need. Though we have not resumed the supply of crude from Iran, supply from Russia is a very viable option for which the Indian investment in Russia’s Far Eastern Region and expeditious development of Vladivostok- Chennai Transport Corridor are very crucial for us.  

Also Read: Will Gwadar prove to be a Waterloo for the CPEC?

The increasing export of Russian defense equipment to Pakistan is also very often presented by the critics as the proof of deterioration of India’s relations with Russia. But we should not forget that the export of arms and ammunition is a major part of Russia’s international trade and we cannot pressurise it to restrict these exports. In any case, the defense supplies from Russia to Pakistan have been quite insignificant as compared with those supplied to India.

Afghanistan is another common area of concern for both India and Russia. Always afraid of terrorism approaching its soft underbelly, Russia is eager to eliminate it from Afghanistan, a goal shared with India. Besides, one should not forget that Russia is now the only country outside the Quad with which we have a 2+2 arrangement meeting that precedes the summit. This visit has put all the speculation to the rest that the India-Russia bilateral relations were fraying. 

The two sides also pledged to enhance the bilateral trade to US$30 billion and investment to US$ 50 billion by 2025, a huge jump by any scale. Besides the defense sector, the two countries signed agreements in the sector of cultural exchange, cooperation in outer space, energy, intellectual property, metallurgical technology, and geological survey. Several protocols and MoUs were also signed between the private parties.

Now, how have other nations reacted to this visit? While the official reaction from Pakistan and USA is yet to come, Pakistan’s Dawn newspaper reported the event in a matter-of-fact tone. The Global Times, China’s mouthpiece expectedly played down the visit calling it a ‘routine’ one and advising India to come out of the US influence. 

Overall, we can say that the visit was successful and allayed the fear of deterioration in the India-Russia relations.

(J K Tripathi is a former Diplomat)