Dubai

Tensions between Iran and the United States intensified Thursday, as both countries increased their military presence while fragile nuclear negotiations hang in the balance. Tehran conducted joint naval exercises with Russia, while Washington moved another aircraft carrier closer to the Middle East.

The parallel military maneuvers highlight the strained relationship between the two governments. Iran’s joint drill with Russia unfolded as the USS Gerald R. Ford carrier strike group approached the Mediterranean region, signaling Washington’s readiness to respond to potential developments.

Earlier in the week, Iran carried out live-fire exercises in the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, a narrow maritime corridor connecting the Persian Gulf to open waters. Roughly 20% of global oil trade flows through the passage, making any military activity there particularly sensitive for international markets.

Although the deployment of additional US naval and air assets does not necessarily indicate imminent military action, it strengthens President Donald Trump’s capacity to respond forcefully if he chooses. Trump has previously warned Tehran over its crackdown on protesters and reported mass executions but has so far refrained from authorizing strikes, even as diplomatic efforts resume following disruptions caused by the June Iran-Israel conflict.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump suggested the United States could rely on military facilities such as Diego Garcia and RAF Fairford if negotiations collapse. His remarks also appeared aimed at influencing the United Kingdom amid discussions over the future of the Chagos Islands.

Joint Iran-Russia naval drills

According to Iran’s state news agency IRNA, Iranian and Russian naval forces conducted coordinated operations in the Gulf of Oman and the northern Indian Ocean. The stated objective was to improve interoperability and share operational experience.

While China has participated in similar “Security Belt” exercises in past years, there was no official confirmation of its involvement this time. Observers recently identified what appeared to be a Russian Steregushchiy-class corvette docked at Bandar Abbas, a key Iranian naval facility.

Iran also issued warnings to regional aviation authorities about planned rocket activity, indicating anti-ship missile launches could form part of the drills.

Meanwhile, maritime tracking data placed the USS Gerald R. Ford off Morocco’s Atlantic coast earlier this week. From there, the carrier could pass through the Strait of Gibraltar and position itself in the eastern Mediterranean, accompanied by guided-missile destroyers.

A carrier strike group in that location would bolster US airpower and missile defense capabilities, potentially supporting allies such as Israel and Jordan if regional hostilities escalate. Washington previously adopted a similar posture during the Israel-Hamas conflict in Gaza to deter Iranian involvement.

Growing unrest inside Iran

At the same time, Iran continues to grapple with domestic unrest. Commemorations marking 40 days since protesters were killed have drawn renewed public gatherings. In Iranian tradition, the 40th day after a death is a significant moment of remembrance.

Witness accounts and footage circulating online showed memorial ceremonies at Tehran’s Behesht-e Zahra cemetery. Some attendees reportedly voiced criticism of the ruling system while singing patriotic songs, despite official warnings against dissent.

The wave of protests began on December 28 in Tehran’s Grand Bazaar, initially sparked by frustration over the sharp decline of the Iranian rial. Demonstrations later spread nationwide, intensifying after calls for action by exiled former crown prince Reza Pahlavi in early January.

READ MORE: Ramzan and Lent begin the same day signaling unity of religions

Official figures from the Iranian government list 3,117 fatalities linked to the unrest. However, the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency estimates that more than 7,000 people may have been killed, suggesting the true toll could be significantly higher.