Washington DC

Prominent US air power expert and political scientist Robert Pape has said that Iran has rapidly risen to become one of the top five most powerful countries in the world amid the ongoing escalation in West Asia.

In an interview with ANI, Pape outlined a three-stage framework to explain the evolving conflict involving the United States and its allies. According to him, the first stage involved US airstrikes that did not achieve decisive strategic success, while the second stage—currently underway—is marked by Iran’s retaliation and expansion of the conflict across multiple fronts.

He warned that the third stage could involve the deployment of US ground forces, significantly escalating tensions. “We are currently between stage one and stage two,” Pape noted, describing the situation as one of “horizontal escalation.”

A key factor behind Iran’s growing influence, he said, is its control over the strategically vital Strait of Hormuz, through which a substantial portion of the world’s oil supply passes. This control has strengthened Tehran’s geopolitical leverage and altered the balance of power in the region.

“This is not the Iran of a month ago… this is now Iran in the top five,” Pape said, emphasising the country’s rapid rise driven by oil wealth and strategic positioning. He added that Iran’s nuclear ambitions could further enhance its global standing in the near future.

Pape argued that while Iran may not actively seek further escalation, it is being drawn into it due to limited alternatives. “There is no easy way out… no golden off-ramp,” he said, suggesting that the conflict could intensify despite reluctance on all sides.

He also pointed out that decades of diplomacy had not significantly elevated Iran’s global status, but recent developments have dramatically changed its position. “Four decades of diplomacy got Iran nowhere… but four weeks of war have made it an oil hegemon,” he remarked.

On the political front in the United States, Pape cautioned that a prolonged conflict could carry serious consequences for President Donald Trump. He said the US leadership faces a difficult choice between pursuing a costly diplomatic settlement or escalating militarily, including possible intervention to secure oil routes.

Pape added that domestic political support could weaken if the conflict drags on, with potential divisions emerging within the ruling establishment.

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The University of Chicago professor, who specialises in security affairs, concluded that the situation remains fluid, with the next phase of escalation likely to shape not only regional dynamics but also the broader global balance of power.