Ashhar Alam | New Delhi

Iran is facing one of its gravest internal crises in decades as a brutal crackdown on nationwide protests has left at least 6,126 people dead, according to activists, even as the country’s currency has collapsed to a historic low and regional tensions escalate with the arrival of US naval forces in the Middle East.

The Iranian rial plunged to a record 1.5 million to the US dollar on Tuesday, underlining the depth of the economic distress that first triggered the unrest late last month. The protests, which erupted on December 28 after the currency slide sharply eroded purchasing power, have since spread across the country and been met with what activists describe as unprecedented state violence.

The latest death toll was released by the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency (HRANA), which has tracked previous waves of unrest in Iran. The group said its figures were verified through an extensive network of sources inside the country. Among those killed were at least 5,777 protesters, 214 government-affiliated forces, 86 children and 49 civilians who were not participating in demonstrations. More than 41,800 people have reportedly been arrested.

Independent verification has been nearly impossible as Iranian authorities imposed a sweeping internet blackout the most extensive in the country’s history severely restricting communication with the outside world.

Tehran has acknowledged far fewer deaths, putting the toll at 3,117 and claiming many of those killed were “terrorists.” In past episodes of unrest, Iran’s leadership has been accused of significantly underreporting casualties.

The scale of the violence now surpasses that of any protest movement in recent decades and has drawn comparisons with the turmoil surrounding Iran’s 1979 Islamic Revolution.

As domestic pressure mounts, geopolitical risks are rising. The USS Abraham Lincoln aircraft carrier strike group has arrived in the region, giving Washington the capacity to mount military operations if tensions spiral. While Gulf Arab states hosting US forces have indicated reluctance to be drawn into a conflict, the deployment signals growing American concern over the situation.

Iran Protest Image

Iranian-backed militias across the Middle East have issued warnings of retaliation if Iran comes under attack. Leaders of armed groups in Iraq and Yemen have threatened renewed assaults, while Hezbollah in Lebanon said it is preparing for “possible aggression,” though it stopped short of committing to direct action.

Iranian officials have accused the United States and Israel of fuelling unrest, allegations reiterated by Iran’s UN ambassador at the Security Council, who described US military threats as explicit and dangerous. No evidence was presented to support claims of foreign orchestration.

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At home, the economic outlook remains bleak. Sanctions linked to Iran’s nuclear programme continue to choke growth, while inflation and currency depreciation have devastated household savings. The rial has fallen from around 32,000 to the dollar a decade ago to its current level, wiping out the value of incomes and pensions. Government measures, including limited cash assistance equivalent to about USD 7 a month, have failed to ease public anger.

With prices soaring, savings evaporating and political space shrinking, activists warn that the combination of economic collapse and repression could fuel further unrest, even as Iran’s leadership faces growing isolation abroad and mounting uncertainty at home.