New Delhi

The new year began with dramatic geopolitical news: the US captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, on January 3, 2026. The operation, codenamed Operation Absolute Resolve, marks a major escalation from years of sanctions to direct military intervention in Latin America.

“President Trump should focus on crises at home instead of running Venezuela for Big Oil,” US Senator Bernie Sanders

While Washington officially cited narco-terrorism, national security, and migration concerns, experts say the real story revolves around Venezuela’s massive oil reserves and global strategic influence.

Oil: The Real Prize

Venezuela holds over 303 billion barrels of proven oil reserves, the largest in the world, surpassing Saudi Arabia’s 267 billion barrels and dwarfing US reserves. Most of this lies in the Orinoco Belt, a 21,000-square-mile region rich in heavy crude.

Despite its size, production remains limited to 1 million barrels per day, just 1% of global supply, due to sanctions and underinvestment. Yet, these reserves make Venezuela a central player in energy geopolitics.

Trump has openly said the US intends to “run” Venezuela temporarily, aiming to regain control over oil assets nationalized decades ago. Analysts see this as a move to secure long-term energy dominance and counter rivals like Russia, China, and Iran.

From Sanctions to Military Action

The US has long pressured Venezuela through sanctions, freezing assets of the state-owned PDVSA and restricting foreign dealings. The Trump administration’s latest operation follows years of accusations that Maduro’s government is a criminal enterprise, facilitating drug trafficking and regional instability.

The US has framed the operation as a security necessity, citing:

Alleged narco-terrorism networks targeting the US

Maduro’s links to human trafficking and terrorism

The mass exodus of Venezuelans, creating border concerns

Yet, analysts argue that controlling Venezuela’s oil is the underlying motivation.

Historical Context

The tensions trace back decades. Under Hugo Chavez and now Maduro, Venezuela adopted socialist and nationalist policies, nationalizing oil assets and opposing US influence. Relations with Washington grew increasingly strained, with sanctions targeting oil and finance sectors.

Maduro’s presidency has faced domestic opposition backed by Western powers, deepening political instability. The US sees the operation as a way to install a transitional government aligned with its interests and reopen the economy to Western investment.

Global Impact and Market Response

Despite the intervention, oil markets remained relatively stable. West Texas Crude fell modestly to $57.32 per barrel, cushioned by US shale production and Strategic Petroleum Reserves.

However, if US companies like Chevron, ConocoPhillips, and ExxonMobil re-enter the Venezuelan market, production could rise, affecting long-term global oil supply.

Meanwhile, Russia and China have warned against violating Venezuela’s sovereignty. Both nations maintain deep economic and military ties with Caracas, complicating US efforts to isolate Maduro.

What Lies Ahead

Venezuela remains politically unstable. Vice President Delcy Rodriguez has declared herself interim president, promising resistance against US control.

For the US, the operation represents more than a confrontation over one leader; it is a strategic push to reassert influence in Latin America, safeguard energy resources, and counter rival powers in the region.

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“Venezuela’s vast oil reserves make it a treasure trove for global energy politics,” Energy analyst

The world will be watching closely as the situation unfolds, with oil, politics, and international alliances all hanging in the balance.