New Delhi

The recent US military strike on Iran's Kharg Island is expected to have only a limited impact on global oil supply, according to a report from JPMorgan.

Early information suggested that the attack targeted military positions while avoiding the island's oil infrastructure, allowing exports to continue for now.

If key facilities such as loading terminals, pipelines, and storage tanks remain intact, Iran should still be able to ship around 1.5 to 1.7 million barrels of crude oil per day, JPMorgan said. It said that any disruption to shipments would likely be short-term and precautionary rather than a lasting loss of supply.

"Any disruption would likely be temporary and precautionary," the report read.

President Donald Trump announced Friday (local time) that US forces carried out heavy strikes on military targets on Kharg Island, which handles roughly 90 percent of Iran's crude exports. The president also warned that Iran's energy assets could be targeted if Tehran continues to interfere with shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.

Kharg Island plays a central role in Iran's oil export system.

The small island, located in the northern Persian Gulf, serves as the main hub where crude from major fields is gathered and shipped to global markets. Its location near deeper waters allows large oil tankers to load efficiently, something that is difficult along Iran's shallow mainland coast.

According to estimates cited in the report, the island has a storage capacity of about 30 million barrels of crude oil. Around 18 million barrels are currently stored there, equal to roughly 10 to 12 days of exports under normal conditions.

"Storage capacity on Kharg Island is estimated at roughly 30 mb, and according to Kpler, approximately 18 mb of crude is currently stored on the island, equivalent to roughly 10-12 days of exports under normal conditions," the JPMorgan report read.

"The island has often been viewed as a critical vulnerability, yet it has rarely been directly targeted in modern conflicts, largely due to the high geopolitical and economic risks of such an attack. A direct strike would immediately halt the bulk of Iran's crude exports, likely triggering severe retaliation in the Strait of Hormuz or against regional energy infrastructure."

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The strike represents a potential escalation in tensions in the Persian Gulf, where major energy facilities are considered vulnerable. Key sites such as Saudi Arabia's Ras Tanura export terminal, the Abqaiq processing hub, and the UAE's Fujairah oil hub are among the most critical energy nodes in the region.

If Kharg Island were disabled, the loss of its storage buffer and the scarcity of viable export alternatives would rapidly trigger upstream shut-ins across major southwest fields, JPMorgan opined.