New Delhi

The recent West Asia crisis that raised fears of an oil shock has turned out to be a short-term "influenza" rather than a prolonged "typhoid", NITI Aayog Vice Chairman Ashok Kumar Lahiri said, calling it a temporary supply shock that underlined the need for India to diversify both import sources and export markets.

When asked how he sees overall trade for the next quarter now that the West Asia crisis is settling down, Lahiri used a medical analogy to assess the impact. "The fear about an oil shock is like you have fever but if it is influenza, you will not be very worried; that it will get alright in 3 days. But if you hear that it is typhoid or jaundice, you will be very worried. So, Hormuz crisis has turned out to be influenza, it was a short term problem," he said.

Lahiri spoke with ANI exclusively, after the NITI Aayog released the eighth edition of its Trade Watch Quarterly report.

Lahiri noted that the main impact came through energy prices and transportation costs, with freight rates rising and some disruption in availability. "I hope the war is going to end, peace will prevail. The impact was in terms of energy prices and transportation cost...Prices went up, but quantities were not available, so there was a problem. I think it was a temporary supply shock," he said.

But the episode, he added, delivered a key policy lesson for India's trade strategy. "But it has taught a few lessons - you don't put all your eggs in one basket. So, we need to diversify our sources of imports as well as our export markets," the NITI Aayog Vice Chairman said.

Lahiri's remarks came as he shared NITI Aayog's compilation of trade figures for Q4 of FY 2025-26. He pointed out that while total trade grew 5.4% in the last quarter with exports at $1.84 trillion, merchandise exports moderated, declining 2.8% even as imports rose 12%. Services exports remained buoyant, but he stressed the need to focus on weak spots rather than overall comfort. "Services exports are doing well, but in NITI Aayog, since we are like doctors and we always look at when you go to the doctor, the doctor doesn't tell you that your eyes are doing fine, but your heart is about to collapse," he said.
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He flagged pharmaceuticals as an area where India must move up the value chain, pushing for backward integration in APIs and more branded products. On FTAs, including the ongoing India-US negotiations, Lahiri said the approach should be optimistic but rooted in mutual benefit: "When any country has a free trade agreement with us, no one is doing anyone a favour. It's for mutual benefit."