Below-normal monsoon forecast for India this year: Met Department

Story by ANI | Posted by Vidushi Gaur | Date 13-04-2026

M Ravichandran, Secretary, Union Ministry of Earth Sciences (R) with Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, director-general of the India Meteorological Department (L)

New Delhi

India is likely to receive below-normal monsoon rainfall this year, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday in its first long-range forecast for the 2026 southwest monsoon season.

Addressing a press conference, M. Ravichandran, Secretary, Ministry of Earth Sciences, said the seasonal rainfall between June and September is expected to be around 92 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA), placing it in the “below normal” category.

The LPA for the four-month monsoon season, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 87 cm. As per IMD norms, rainfall between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the LPA is considered normal.

IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra, who was also present at the briefing, said the forecast carries a model error margin of plus or minus 5 per cent. An updated projection will be issued by the end of May.

Explaining the factors influencing the forecast, Ravichandran said weak La Niña-like conditions over the equatorial Pacific are currently transitioning to neutral conditions, while the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) remains neutral but is expected to turn positive during the latter half of the monsoon season.

He added that while these oceanic conditions may have a slightly adverse impact, favourable northern hemisphere snow cover could partly offset the effect, contributing to the overall rainfall estimate.

Climate models, including the Monsoon Mission Climate Forecast System (MMCFS), also indicate the possible development of El Niño conditions during the monsoon season.

The southwest monsoon typically sets in over Kerala around June 1 and withdraws by mid-September. The IMD issues its monsoon forecast in two stages—an initial outlook in April and an updated forecast by the end of May—followed by monthly projections through the season.

The department said its current forecasting approach combines both dynamical and statistical models, including a Multi-Model Ensemble (MME) system based on global climate models.

Further detailed forecasts, including regional rainfall distribution and monthly outlooks, will be released in subsequent updates.