New Delhi

India Meteorological Department on Friday issued its second-stage long-range forecast for the southwest monsoon, predicting below-normal rainfall across several parts of the country and warning of increased heatwave activity in multiple states from June onwards.

Addressing a press conference, IMD Director General of Meteorology Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said India is likely to receive 90 per cent of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June-September monsoon season, with a model error margin of four per cent.

“We are providing the second-stage update for the June-September monsoon. Quantitatively, we expect 90 per cent of the LPA, with a 4 per cent model error,” Mohapatra said.

According to the forecast, Northeast India is expected to receive normal rainfall between 94 and 106 per cent of the LPA. However, Central India, Northwest India, South Peninsular India and the Monsoon Core Zone are likely to witness below-normal rainfall during the season.

For June specifically, the IMD said rainfall is expected to remain below normal across most parts of the country at less than 92 per cent of the LPA. Some regions in Northwest India, Northeast India and parts of the southern peninsula could, however, receive normal to above-normal rainfall.

The weather agency also forecast above-normal temperatures across much of the country during June.

Mohapatra said maximum temperatures are likely to remain above normal in most areas except parts of Central, Northwest and East India, while minimum temperatures are also expected to stay above normal in many regions.

The IMD warned that Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Punjab, Bihar, Odisha, Chhattisgarh, Gujarat and Andhra Pradesh may witness more heatwave days than usual. Parts of Maharashtra, Telangana and Tamil Nadu are also expected to experience heightened heatwave activity.

On oceanic conditions, the IMD said neutral ENSO conditions are gradually shifting towards El Nino. According to the agency, the probability of El Nino developing is expected to rise to 82 per cent by June and exceed 90 per cent during July and August.

Neutral Indian Ocean Dipole conditions are likely to continue throughout the monsoon season, the IMD added.

The department also noted that rainfall during May has been four per cent above normal across the country, while cumulative seasonal rainfall up to May 27 stood one per cent above normal.

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The southwest monsoon reached the Andaman and Nicobar Islands on May 16, four days ahead of schedule, and has since advanced into the South Arabian Sea and Lakshadweep region. The IMD said conditions remain favourable for the monsoon to arrive over Kerala and the northeastern states within the coming week.