Ashhar Alam

China’s economy grew 5 per cent in 2025, reaching a historic USD 20.01 trillion, buoyed by strong exports even as domestic consumption lagged. According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Monday, China’s GDP hit 140.19 trillion yuan, surpassing the USD 20 trillion mark for the first time.

Despite meeting its annual growth target, the expansion slowed in the final quarter to 4.5 per cent, marking the weakest quarterly growth in three years, weighed down by domestic challenges and a cooling property market. On a quarterly basis, the economy grew 1.2 per cent in the last three months of 2025.

Exports remained the driving force behind China’s growth, with the country posting a record USD 1.19 trillion trade surplus, shrugging off US tariffs and declining shipments to the United States. Analysts say this export-led growth highlights the economy’s continued reliance on overseas demand, while domestic spending remains fragile. Retail sales of consumer goods rose only 3.7 per cent, missing the 4.1 per cent forecast, and property investment fell sharply by 17.2 per cent.

Per capita disposable income climbed 5 per cent to 43,377 yuan (USD 6,192), and the urban unemployment rate held steady at 5.2 per cent, though unofficial estimates suggest higher underemployment. Industrial output expanded 5.9 per cent, while private sector investment dropped 6.4 per cent.

Economists note that while exports have kept growth steady, consumption and investment are struggling. Sarah Tan of Moody’s Analytics said, “China’s growth has become increasingly lopsided, propped up by exports while households hang back amid weak domestic demand.” The services sector, however, remained a bright spot, supported by tech, AI, and financial market activity.

China also recorded an urbanization rate of 67.89 per cent, up nearly one percentage point from 2024. As the country concludes its 14th Five-Year Plan (2021–2025), attention is shifting to the 15th plan, with policymakers expected to prioritize boosting domestic demand and fostering more self-sustained growth. Analysts predict a growth target of 4.5–5 per cent for 2026, alongside a more measured policy approach.

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Despite challenges, China’s economy demonstrated resilience, balancing external pressures with continued progress in high-quality development a sign that, while exports remain the engine, reforms and domestic strategies may shape its next phase of growth.