Daulat Rahman/Guwahati

The October 6 Nagaon Lok Sabha by-election may not change the balance of power in Parliament, but its political significance goes well beyond a single seat.For the ruling BJP, the by-poll in central Assam is a test case of its capacity to make inroads into a Congress stronghold. Congress, on the other hand, will try to retain its hold over a Muslim-majority constituency.

At an individual level, for Maulana Badruddin Ajmal, a Deoband-trained Islamic scholar, it is a fight to revive an All-India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) that has been reduced to just two Assembly seats in Assam. All these aspirations and struggles are pegged around Muslim voters.

For the BJP, a victory would mean expanding its footprint across Assam. For the Congress, the bypoll is a test of whether it can retain the minority support that has remained a crucial part of its electoral base. And for AIUDF chief Badruddin Ajmal, the contest could determine whether his party can regain some of the ground it has lost.

The result, therefore, will be watched as much for the vote share of the three principal players as for the larger political message it sends about the changing nature of Assam’s Muslim electorate.

Nagaon has 19,05,519 voters — 9,62,023 men, 9,43,446 women and 50 voters from the third gender.

The constituency was substantially altered in the 2023 delimitation exercise. The minority-dominated Assembly segments of Dhing, Rupohihat and Samaguri were brought into Nagaon from the erstwhile Kaliabor Lok Sabha constituency, while Barhampur, Hojai and Lumding were removed.

CM Himanta Biswa Sarma campaigning for BJP in Nagoan

Analysts estimate that Muslims now account for more than 60 per cent of the electorate.

In the 2024 Lok Sabha election, the BJP won five of the eight Assembly segments under Nagaon — Jagiroad, Morigaon, Nagaon, Batadrava and Raha. Congress won Laharighat, Rupohihat and Samaguri, while Raijor Dal won Dhing.

The electoral geography is striking. The BJP has largely dominated the Hindu-majority segments, while Congress and Raijor Dal have retained influence in minority-dominated areas.

The by-election will test whether that divide remains intact or whether one of the principal players, Nagaon, has remained beyond the BJP's reach since 2019, even as the party has strengthened its organisation and electoral presence in neighbouring areas.

Pradyut Bordoloi of Congress defeated BJP's Suresh Borah in the 2024 polls with 2,12,231 votes. AIUDF candidate Aminul Islam finished third with 1,37,340 votes.

Bordoloi subsequently resigned from the Lok Sabha and joined the BJP before contesting and winning the Assembly election from Dispur. His resignation necessitated the Nagaon bypoll.

Muslim women in an election rally in Nagoan

The BJP has fielded former Nagaon Deputy Commissioner Devasish Sharma, hoping to combine the party's organisational strength with goodwill Sharma built during his tenure as an administrator in Nagaon and Morigaon.

Sharma took voluntary retirement on September 3 and joined the BJP five days later. His rapid transition from the bureaucracy to electoral politics has, however, drawn criticism from sections of the electorate and opposition parties.

"We are not seeing much of an election wave in Nagaon," said a college teacher in Nagaon.

Besides Sharma’s local links, the BJP is also banking on its welfare schemes.

The most striking feature of the BJP's campaign in Nagaon was its effort to challenge the assumption that the constituency's Muslim electorate is automatically aligned with Congress or AIUDF.

BJP leaders claim that the minority vote is not a monolith and that sections of Muslim voters have already supported the party.

Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma has made this argument explicitly during the campaign. He has pointed to BJP votes recorded in Muslim-majority Assembly segments and claimed that minority voters have supported the party in the past. On September 22, Sarma said the BJP had secured more than 40,000 votes across Dhing, Rupohihat, Laharighat and Samaguri in the previous Lok Sabha election and argued that the party could increase its minority support this time.

In another campaign intervention, Sarma said a section of "Miya" voters had supported the BJP previously and claimed that the party was seeking support beyond religious lines. He also said the BJP had received substantial minority support in the 2026 Assembly election.

Congress election rally in Nagoan

The BJP attacked Congress over its dependence on minority votes and accused it of seeking political arrangements with AIUDF. The Assam BJP has alleged that Congress and AIUDF share a political understanding centred on minority-vote arithmetic — an allegation Congress and AIUDF have disputed or not immediately responded to.

CM Sarma has openly sought Muslims’ votes during the campaigning based on his government’s performance.

On the other hand, Congress has held Nagaon since 2019, but the entry of Ajmal has complicated the arithmetic.

Congress leaders argue that the BJP is attempting to benefit from a division of opposition and minority votes. Several opposition parties have also announced support for Congress candidate Sibamoni Bora.

Ajmal’s presence in the polls means that Congress cannot take minority support for granted. Ajmal is fighting for the survival of his own political platform.

The AIUDF's Assembly strength has fallen dramatically, from 16 seats to just two. Ajmal's decision to enter the Nagaon contest is therefore as much about reviving the party as it is about winning a Lok Sabha seat.

The perfume businessman has returned to the electoral battlefield after losing his traditional Dhubri Lok Sabha seat in 2024 by more than 10 lakh votes. He is currently an MLA from Binnakandi.

AIUDF leader Ajmal Badruddin campaigning in Naogoan

Ajmal has projected himself as an alternative to both Congress and BJP. He has argued that Congress has not done enough for Muslims and has said he expects support from both Muslims and Hindus.

"I will get the votes of Muslims and Hindus," Ajmal said after his candidature was announced, claiming that he could also attract a significant number of Hindu votes.

His campaign has also taken an emotional and community-centred turn. At one meeting, Ajmal broke down while appealing to voters not to "make the same mistake this time".

A relatively small shift in voting patterns in the minority-dominated Assembly segments could have consequences for the overall result. So could the division of votes between Congress and AIUDF.

More than a by-election

For the BJP, Nagaon is an opportunity to demonstrate that its electoral reach can extend into a constituency where it has historically struggled.

For Congress, it is a test of whether its traditional minority support base remains intact after the dramatic political changes in Assam.

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For Ajmal and the AIUDF, it is an attempt to prove it remains relevant even today.