Shantanu Mukharji

In a shocking incident, the Commanding Officer (CO) of the 46 Assam Rifles, Col. Viplav Tripathi, his wife, and nine-year-old son were killed in Manipur bordering Myanmar on the morning of November 13. The dastardly ambush is suspected to be the handiwork of the Manipur Naga People’s Front (MNPF), the People’sLiberation Army (PLA), and the People’s Revolutionary Party of Kangleipak (PREPAK), and other self-styled splinter terror groups active in the State.

It would appear that the militancy in Manipur has again raised its ugly head, and therefore, the threat from it should not be underestimated. It would also seem as if the authorities had lowered their guard and a sense of complicity had perhaps set in emboldening the separatists.

Under these circumstances, it is time now to take a few lessons from this incident to reach the bottom of the attack of such ferocity. In this connection, the following questions emerge:

i)How did weapons like AK-47 Rifles and explosives reach a supposedly sensitive zone and insurgency-prone Manipur?

ii) Wasn’t there a prior actionable intelligence input about the attack taking?

iii) Have the Naga and the Manipuri rebels cobbled an alliance to force multiply their sting against the Army?

iv) Is there a fresh functional tie-up between the 42-year-old United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA) and the Manipuri Armed groups that might have led to a new fillip to the terror activities?

Meanwhile, sources privy to information indicate that China's hand in the deadly attack cannot be ruled out. Indo-China relations are already under strain and there has been ample evidence in the past about Chinese covert support to the North Eastern insurgents like the National Socialist Council of Nagaland (NSCN) (I/M), the United Liberation Front of Assam (ULFA), and many Manipuri rebel groups. 

We should not forget that ULFA supremo Paresh Baruah is living in China these days after he was hounded out of Bangladesh by the Sheikh Hasina government. Similarly, all other North-East insurgent groups that enjoyed safe havens on the Bangladesh soil had been got rid of and, therefore, it is likely that they are now harboured, possibly trained, and looked after in the camps inside the Chinese territory.

Other than the China angle, sheltering of the North East insurgent groups particularly the Manipur militants, inside Myanmar also remains a distinct possibility. Significantly, the ambush against Col Viplav Tripathi’s convoy was close to the Myanmar border. 

It’s being inferred that the perpetrators of the attack had come from Myanmar to carry it out this meticulous operation that involved exploding Improvised Explosive Devices(IEDs) on the CO’s car followed by heavy gunfire. The entire operation was carried out with surgical precision and had trappings of being executed by highly trained militants, probably by Chinese military trainers. Or these people might have been trained by a segment of Myanmar’s Army after taking a good amount of money from the terrorists.

Asha and Subhash Tripathi, Parents of Col Viplav Tripathi receiving national flag on behalf of their son (Twitter)

For the security men deployed in the Northeastern region, insurgency, therefore, remains a tough challenge. While it is easier to blame it on intelligence failure, yet is time for the intelligence and security outfits belonging to the Army, Manipur State police, and the Central Armed Police Forces to step up their coordination against the threat of militancy. The November 13 occurrence should be taken as a wake-up call and lead to a more focused approach on it. There are pockets of rebellion in Assam and other parts of the North East and a hawk-like vigil needs to be maintained on such elements. 

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Another disturbing aspect deserving attention is the flow of arms into the hands of the North-East insurgents as noticed in the fresh incident. There were credible reports in the past about the supply of arms for the Nagas, ULFA, and Manipuri Insurgents from Cambodia via Thailand and even from Bangladesh. 

With an India-friendly government in the seat in Dhaka, the situation on that front may have improved yet the arms supply from Thailand or Myanmar (either through Andaman waters or land route) could be on. We need to appropriate the services of our diplomats and security professionals to sensitize the relevant quarters to plug the loopholes before they inflict more damage.  

(Writer is a retired IPS officer, a security analyst, and a former National Security Adviser to the Prime Minister of Mauritius. Views are personal)