Saeed Naqvi

I would never have expected the liberal right-wing, Israel-friendly news magazine, The Economist, to have on its cover a headline in large fonts – Advantage Iran. There is now a willingness in the ruling class circles to accept Iran’s upper hand in a conflict with Israel (and the US).

This contradicts Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's (Also called Bibi) persistent sales pitch to Trump that a joint Israel-US bombing of Iran will lead to the regime's collapse.

Reports have surfaced in the Israeli Press of Vice President J. D. Vance taking Netanyahu to task for selling a line that had zero chance of proving right. That Vance is now smelling of roses signals a crack in Trump’s White House team. The point of contention was the US fighting Israel’s war with Iran.

This war within the Washington establishment adds to mounting anxieties on account of the widening cracks in Trump’s MAGA base. Israel’s war with Iran and Trump’s willingness to take a leadership role are creating turbulence in MAGA.

A fact, among many, which makes Trump so willing a champion for an Israeli war is his Jewish son-in-law, Jared Kushner, being “chummy” with Bibi. Kushner is virtually “Bibi’s” man in the White House.

Bibi has the kind of influence on the extraordinarily powerful Israel lobby in the US that no Israeli leader has ever had. And little wonder too. He has degrees from Harvard and MIT. Add to this network his experience as Israel’s ambassador to the UN for four years, keeping him amidst the world’s second-largest Jewish population after Tel Aviv.

Tomorrow, 8:00 PM Eastern Time. pic.twitter.com/eGqbioePia

— The White House (@WhiteHouse) April 6, 2026

Trump disguises it by his bluster, but he is torn between the Israeli lobby and the MAGA base, which sees a betrayal of the America First project bound around Trump as its leader.

A President with a character as doubtful as Trump’s may not turn out to be as reliable as his MAGA followers expect him to be. The real danger lies elsewhere. A President in his second term can be wilful and self-serving because he sees no occupation of the White House after 2028.

A MAGA ideologue whom Trump respects, Steve Bannon, told The Economist editor-in-chief, Zany Minton Beddoes, in a podcast that “Trump will be President beyond 2028” because “the American people want that to happen.” How would that be possible when the 22nd Amendment to the US Constitution restricts a President’s terms to two?

Bannon said, “The American people will find ways around the Constitution.” Bannon’s hyperbole was stunning. “Trump is like Moses leading his people out of Egypt.”

This excessive praise of Trump, let it be added in parentheses, predated the war with Iran. Trump’s stock is much lower among MAGA now primarily because “American blood is being shed for Israel’s war.”

Vice President J.D. Vance is giving a dressing down to Netanyahu for having misled the President on the war, that once the top Iranian leadership was decapitated, the Iranians would rise to a man. Israeli intelligence had predicted such an almighty popular uprising not just against the Ayatullahs but in favour of Trump. What happened was exactly the opposite. Iranians rallied around the regime most demonstrably.

Even before this division in the White House inner circle about Israel’s influence on Trump, there was a rupture in the MAGA base. It became headline news with the murder of a prominent activist and Trump’s friend, Charlie Kirk, during a talk on Turning Point America at Utah Valley College. MAGA is supposed to be America’s “Turning Point”.

The murder acquired sinister undertones because it took place in the period when Kirk had become vocal against the US-Israeli buildup for a war in Iran. At the heart of the opposition to the war, the same fear – its Israel’s war.

The needle of suspicion pointed at Israel, but the police picked up a 22-year-old Tyler Robinson, who was heard by witnesses expressing anger at Kirk spreading too much hate.

Fractures appeared in the US Intelligence community, including at the highest levels. Joe Kent, Director of the National Counter Terrorism Centre was keen to explore some leads which pointed to a “foreign hand” in Kirk’s murder. He was blocked by authorities not to pursue his line of inquiry. Kent resigned.

US‑IRAN WAR THREATENS SAUDI VISION 2030 — WSJ

Hormuz closure SLASHES oil exports — over $10B lost in revenues and costs

Riyadh RECONSIDERING last year’s $1T US investments... See more pic.twitter.com/Y0jJkuIp2V

— Ayatollah Alireza Arafi (@Realarafi) April 7, 2026

Kent’s resignation opened up a serious problem in the US Intelligence community. Kent has acquired star ratings for his candid, and full disclosure interviews with such superstars as Tucker Carlson. A distillate of what he says points to an American intelligence community which may have begun to be dangerously reliant on Israeli intelligence.

This fracture in the intelligence community is no trifling matter. Suddenly, social media with ideologically motivated journalists like Tucker Carlson has mushroomed to flaunt stories of deep Israeli penetration of the US establishment.

That Trump had turned his back on Europe is well known. Rather than have the albatross of Western decline around the US’s neck, MAGA strategised differently: it parted company with Europe to find itself in solo splendour as the world’s richest and militarily the most powerful country. The sole superpower moment had passed most decisively when Lehman Brothers collapsed in 2008. Western decline became the chant that grew in decibel level.

Division in Trump’s close circle, in the MAGA base, within the Intelligence community, harsh exchanges with NATO and individual European nation are all signs of irritation which has one source – the Iran war. What should alarm Bibi is this – all plaintiffs are opposed to the US fighting “Israel’s war.”

Iranian musician Ali Ghamsari, a composer and Tar player, announced that starting today, he will stay at Damavand power plant responsible for providing half of Tehran’s electricity with his instrument for some time, creating music to help prevent attacks on Iran's infrastructure. pic.twitter.com/DxzOkbofqj

— Iran Embassy in Australia (@IraninAustralia) April 7, 2026

If this grows, as it will because of high costs on account of the closure of the straits of Hormuz and the possibility of returning body bags, should US ground troops be deployed, Trump’s popularity will fall even as the mid-term elections approach in November.

ALSO READ: West Asia Conflict: Pakistan, a peacemaker without credibility

The burden of all this will strain US-Israel relations as never before. The very thought of US distancing itself from the West Asian theatre will pose for Israel its first real existential crisis.

The author is a veteran journalist