Washington

The US' Conference Board said Tuesday that its consumer confidence index inched up to 92.8 from 92.2 in March, despite growing anxiety over soaring energy prices brought on by the war in Iran. It remains mired near its lowest level since the COVID-19 pandemic.

It's the first read on inflation to capture the effects of the Iran war. The surge in gas prices to an average USD 4.18 a gallon this week, up more than a dollar since before the war, will stretch budgets and erode incomes, making it harder for lower- and middle-income American households to afford food and rent.

“Consumers are singing the blues,” said Heather Long, chief economist at Navy Federal Credit Union.

“They aren't happy with high prices for gas, housing, electricity and many other items. It's clear consumers aren't going to feel much better until there's an end to the Middle East conflict.”

Without OPEC production limits, UAE could help lower postwar oil prices

The announcement doesnt change anything regarding the blockage of the Strait of Hormuz, but could help speed the oil market's return to lower prices after the war, said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone foreign exchange brokerage.

Once the war ends, the UAE could reach its pre-conflict goal of increasing production to 5 million barrels per day, “in turn helping crude benchmarks to normalise in shorter order once the ongoing Middle East conflict comes to an end,” he said.

The UAE's move appears to be part of an effort to assert themselves as leaders and independent actors in the region, and sell oil and gas when and how they see fit, said Karen Young, senior research scholar at Columbia University's Centre on Global Energy Policy.

“This exit of OPEC fits into the UAE need for flexibility with key energy consumers as well — including a future relationship with China and a more competitive relationship with Saudi Arabia,” she said.

The exit won't immediately change export capacity, since the UAE's lone pipeline around the Strait of Hormuz to the port at Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman is already running at full capacity, Young noted.

The move also indicates UAE's frustration with regional organisations, such as the Gulf Cooperation Council, she said.

“It signals regional cooperation and coordination is weak, the GCC as a unit is dead, this has war demonstrated failure of mutual defence,” Young said.

The UAE's withdrawal removes one of OPEC's few members with ability to quickly increase production - the mechanism through which the cartel manages oil prices, said Jorge Leon, head of geopolitical analysis at Rystad Energy.

“A structurally weaker OPEC, with less spare capacity concentrated within the group, will find it increasingly difficult to calibrate supply and stabilize prices,” Leon said.

“The net effect points to a more fragmented supply landscape and a potentially more volatile oil market over time as OPEC's ability capacity to smooth imbalances diminishes,” he said.

UN chief praises Pakistan's role in regional, global peace

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres spoke with Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar on Tuesday and conveyed the international community's “deep appreciation” for Pakistan's constructive role in promoting regional and global peace and stability, according to Pakistan's Foreign Ministry.

In a statement, the ministry said Guterres also expressed the United Nations' full support for Pakistan's ongoing peace efforts.

Dar briefed the UN chief on the latest regional developments and Pakistan's diplomatic engagement with relevant parties, the statement said.

Lebanon's Health Ministry raises death toll of Israel-Hezbollah war to 2,534

The ministry added on Tuesday that 7,863 have been wounded since the war broke out on March 2.

The war has displaced more than 1 million people and caused destruction worth billions of dollars.

Peak oil means sell barrels now or leave money on table.

Leon said the approaching peak in global oil demand has shifted the incentive for producers from collective restraint to earning money from their reserves now.

He said the UAE, with its 4.8 million barrels per day of production capacity and potential to increase output, is “particularly well positioned to pursue such a strategy outside the group”.

Israel has no territorial ambitions in Lebanon: Foreign Minister

Israeli foreign minister Gideon Saar said the Israeli military-controlled “buffer zone” that stretches 10 km (6 miles) into Lebanon is necessary to protect residents in Israel's north.

“Hezbollah has transformed the entire front line of southern Lebanon into a network of terrorist infrastructure, and this threat has not been properly addressed by the Lebanese government,” he said during a press conference with Serbian Foreign Minister Marko Duric in Jerusalem.

Saar refused to comment on the fragile ceasefire with Hezbollah, which both sides have violated multiple times since Trump announced it last week, and whether Israel might expand its military operations beyond southern Lebanon. He did note Israel's first direct negotiations with Lebanon in decades.

“Our direct negotiations with Lebanon are important, it could be an opening to a different, better future,” he said. “But the Lebanese government must take practical steps to restore its sovereignty against de facto Iranian control in its territory.”

Iran's economy battered; its leaders still think Trump will blink first

US and Israeli airstrikes crippled thousands of factories in Iran, and the economic damage is reverberating — millions more Iranians could lose their jobs.

Most damaging, Israeli strikes knocked out most steel and petrochemical production, causing a surge in prices for metals and plastic. Things could get worse as the US blockades Iranian ports.

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Economic woes sparked the mass protests that were crushed before the war, and could again push Iranians into the streets. But Iran's leaders are betting that economic self-reliance built under decades of sanctions can help them endure the pain longer than Trump.